206
AWUS01 KWNH 051817
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-060000-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0325
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
216 PM EDT FRI JUN 05 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN TX INTO SOUTHEASTERN NM
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 051816Z - 060000Z
SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, SOME WITH SLOW MOVEMENT,
WILL POSE AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN TX INTO SOUTHEASTERN NM. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN 30
TO 60 MINUTES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...GOES EAST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER CHIHUAHUA WITH A VISUALLY INFERRED AND RAP ANALYSIS
SUPPORTED JET STREAK LOCATED TO ITS SOUTHEAST (80 KT) OVER
COAHUILA WITH LEFT-EXIT REGION ASCENT OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN TX,
WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER. WITH A PORTION OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM MEXICO INTO SOUTHEASTERN NM AND THE
TX PANHANDLE, WEAK STEERING FLOW WAS IN PLACE FOR A NOTABLE
PORTION OF FAR WESTERN TX INTO SOUTHEASTERN NM AND PARTS OF THE TX
PANHANDLE.
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY HAVE ALREADY CONFIRMED
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION WHERE MORE
FAVORABLE SOLAR INSOLATION HAS ALLOWED FOR AN EXPANDING REGION OF
500-1500+ J/KG MLCAPE WHERE PW VALUES REMAINED ANOMALOUS (+1 TO +2
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES) AS THEY HAVE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN NM INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN TX WITH CONTINUED DAYTIME
HEATING AND REDUCTION OF CIN. ANOTHER CONTRIBUTING FACTOR WILL BE
THE EXPECTED NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER MEXICO,
WHICH WILL PROVIDE INCREASED ASCENT AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ACROSS
WESTERN TX.
WHILE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NUMEROUS
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW
SLOWER MOVING CELLS AND SMALLER CLUSTERS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN 30 TO 60 MINUTES. PORTIONS OF THE
REGION HAVE SEEN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK
AND AREAS OF LOWERED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE EXIST AS A RESULT.
THEREFORE, ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN
TX INTO SOUTHEASTERN NM THROUGH ~00Z.
OTTO
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...LUB...MAF...SJT...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 34760140 34280063 33460037 32560073 30980132
30220193 29700315 29870364 30240402 30730433
31130503 31510559 32240608 33490572 33560441
33870320 34460224
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