460
AWUS01 KWNH 052206
FFGMPD
TXZ000-060204-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0327
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
605 PM EDT FRI JUN 05 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 052204Z - 060204Z
SUMMARY...RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION NEAR THE BROWNSVILLE,
TX METRO AREA AND ALONG THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY POSES A FLASH
FLOOD RISK.
DISCUSSION...RADAR TRENDS DEPICT SEVERAL SLOW-MOVING CELLS OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THAT HAVE PERSISTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND
PRODUCED OCCASIONAL 3 INCH/HR RAIN RATES - PRIMARILY OVER RURAL
AREAS WHERE FFG THRESHOLDS ARE QUITE HIGH (3-4 INCHES/HR, LOCALLY
HIGHER). FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL HAS BEEN RELATIVELY
ISOLATED/SPARSE.
RECENT RADAR/SATELLITE DEPICTS CONVECTION FORMING NEARER TO THE
POPULATED AREAS OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY (NEAR/JUST
NORTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE AND JUST SOUTH OF MCALLEN). THESE CELLS
ARE IN A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CELLS FARTHER
NORTH ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, AND HAVE POTENTIAL FOR 3 INCH/HR
RAIN RATES OVER MORE SENSITIVE, URBANIZED LOCALES. THE RISK FOR
IMPACTS FROM FLASH FLOODING HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST 30
MINUTES AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO WHILE SLOW-MOVING CELLS
CONTINUE OVER MORE SENSITIVE/URBAN AREAS.
THIS RISK WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE HOURS.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AND SHOULD LESSEN IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET.
COOK
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...
LAT...LON 27789791 27469736 26429714 25769721 25819818
26359895 27569892
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