949
AWUS01 KWNH 052340
FFGMPD
TXZ000-060400-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0328
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
739 PM EDT FRI JUN 05 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 052338Z - 060400Z
SUMMARY...A BAND OF CONVECTION WAS ORGANIZING ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH
AXIS FROM NEAR KILLEEN TO NEAR LULING. THIS WILL SPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF AUSTIN METRO AND SURROUNDING AREAS FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN
SENSITIVE LOCALES.
DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY DEPICTED A BAND OF
CONVECTION FROM NEAR KILLEEN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO LULING (EAST
OF SAN ANTONIO) THAT WAS INCREASING IN ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY
OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THE FORCING MECHANISMS FOR THIS BAND
ARE CURRENTLY UNCLEAR, BUR ARE LIKELY TIED TO SUBTLE INFLUENCES
FROM A MID/UPPER WAVE CENTERED OVER FAR WEST TEXAS AND SUBTLE
CONFLUENCE ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY SEPARATING RAIN-COOLED AIR FROM
EAST TEXAS TO SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE WEST.
UNFORTUNATELY, THESE CELLS WERE ORGANIZING GENERALLY PARALLEL TO
WEAK SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT, ALLOWING FOR INDIVIDUAL CELLS
TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH WHILE ENABLING THE DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE AXIS
TO STAY NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN SPOTS OF
2-3 INCH/HR RAIN RATES (AND LOCAL FFG EXCEEDENCE) BETWEEN KILLEEN
AND GEORGETOWN ALONG US 183, ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
RATES FARTHER SOUTH NEAR AUSTIN.
WITH STILL A FEW HOURS OF SURFACE HEATING LEFT, A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR CONVECTION TO POSE A FLASH FLOOD RISK FOR
THE AREAS BENEATH THIS BAND. ADDITIONAL, FORWARD-PROPAGATING
CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF THIS AXIS (NORTH OF VICTORIA) MAY ALSO
EXHIBIT SIMILAR BEHAVIOR (SPOTS OF 1-3 INCH/HR RATES AT TIMES).
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THIS REGIME.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT A DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD
MATERIALIZE AFTER SUNSET, THOUGH THIS WILL BE MODULATED HEAVILY BY
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION -- ANY UPSCALE GROWTH OF CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY PROLONG ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAINFALL RISK. THE
CURRENT MPD WILL RUN THROUGH 04Z WHEN FLASH FLOODING IS MOST
LIKELY TO OCCUR, AND TRENDS WILL BE REEVALUATED FOR CONTINUED RISK
AROUND THAT TIME.
COOK
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...
LAT...LON 32109796 31199670 29929652 29169676 28679833
30009869 31579894
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