140
AWUS01 KWNH 052359
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-060557-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0329
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
758 PM EDT FRI JUN 05 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE, FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA, AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 052357Z - 060557Z
SUMMARY...SCATTERED, SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST, RESULTING
IN A CONTINUED FLASH FLOOD RISK ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EARLY EVENING.
DISCUSSION...DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES BENEATH A MID/UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER THE TRANSPECOS REGION OF FAR WEST TEXAS. ABUNDANT
HEATING/INSTABILITY BENEATH THIS MID/UPPER LOW AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE (1.2-1.75 INCH PW VALUES - HIGHEST WITH EASTWARD EXTENT)
WAS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH RATES
EXCEEDING 2-3 INCHES/HR IN SPOTS - ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE, JUST NORTH OF LUBBOCK, NEAR
SWEETWATER, AND NEAR IRAAN. FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL REMAINS LIKELY
WITH THIS ACTIVITY FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 2-4 HOURS (THROUGH SUNSET).
MODELS/OBSERVATIONS DEPICT THAT CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
SLOW-MOVING, WITH SLOW PROPAGATION EXPECTED NEAR ANY LINEAR
SEGMENTS OR CLUSTERS THAT BEGIN TO PROPAGATE. STORMS MAY
EVENTUALLY UNDERGO A WEAKENING TREND WITH TIME AFTER SUNSET, BUT
IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS PROCESS WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS TO PLAY OUT
WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY AND THE TENDENCY FOR SMALL UPSCALE
GROWTH WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY. THERE IS SOME RISK THAT
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FORMS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY BETWEEN JUNCTION
AND US 281 GIVEN SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF LOCAL TOWERING CUMULUS
IN THAT AREA, THOUGH FORCING OVERALL IS WEAK AND THIS RISK IS
SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL. MOISTURE/BUOYANCY PROFILES SUPPORT HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLASH FLOOD RISK WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN
THAT REGION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
COOK
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...EWX...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...
SJT...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 35280126 35160010 34579916 32699862 30559871
28949910 28690007 29570148 29760248 29050317
29230398 29810474 31940610 33680594 34310433
34600252
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