354
AWUS01 KWNH 060118
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-060717-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0330
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
917 PM EDT FRI JUN 05 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA,
NORTHERN MISSOURI, AND A SMALL PART OF NORTHEASTERN KANSAS
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 060117Z - 060717Z
SUMMARY...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. SLOW MOVEMENT AND FAVORABLE
ORIENTATION FOR BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING WILL POSE A THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING, WITH LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING IN EARNEST ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA CURRENTLY. THE STORMS ARE LIKELY RESPONDING
TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE RELATED TO INCREASING 850MB
FLOW/LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS CURRENTLY.
THE STORMS ARE IN A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT
(MLCAPE NEARING 4000 J/KG, 1.4-1.7 INCH PW), WITH MODEST STEERING
FLOW SUPPORTING SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND LOCAL BACKBUILDING. GIVEN
THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE STORM ORIENTATION, AREAS OF
1-2 INCH/HR RATES WERE ALREADY BEING ESTIMATED PER MRMS IN A FEW
SPOTS, APPROACHING FFG THRESHOLDS (RELATIVELY LOW IN SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA AND POINTS SOUTHEASTWARD).
GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT AND DOWNSTREAM GROUND SENSITIVITIES (~1
INCH/HR RAIN RATES IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM NE INTO NORTHWEST
MO), FLASH FLOODING APPEARS LIKELY AS CONVECTION SLOWLY MIGRATES
EASTWARD. CURRENT EVOLUTION APPEARS TO SUPPORT EXPANDING
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THAT EVENTUALLY FORM A MIX OF CELLS AND SMALL
LINEAR SEGMENTS AS STORM MODES. FLASH FLOODING COULD BECOME
SIGNIFICANT IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE PROLONGED RAINFALL AND HIGHER
RAIN RATES. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT FFG THRESHOLDS COULD
EASILY BE DOUBLED (RAIN RATES EXCEEDING 2.5 INCH/HR) IN A FEW
INSTANCES. THIS RISK WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
AGAIN WITH BACKBUILDING POTENTIAL LIKELY GIVEN THE FAVORABLE,
ORTHOGONAL POSITIONING OF THE KS LOW-LEVEL JET TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA.
COOK
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...GID...OAX...TOP...
ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...
LAT...LON 41689696 41629397 41429279 40429258 39559367
39419704 40429907 41529907
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