209
AWUS01 KWNH 261840
FFGMPD
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-270030-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0532
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
239 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 261839Z - 270030Z
SUMMARY...INCREASING COVERAGE OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSE AN ISOLATED CONCERN FOR SOME FLASH FLOODING
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST GOES-E IR/WV SUITE SHOWS A DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S., WITH RADAR IMAGERY CONFIRMING
THE DEVELOPMENT AND EXPANSION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
AREAS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS SEEN GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND THIS COUPLED WITH DPVA, INCREASING BOUNDARY
LAYER INSTABILITY, AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING SHOULD TEND TO FAVOR AN
UPTICK IN THE COVERAGE OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GOING THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING.
MLCAPE VALUES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG, WITH PWS NEAR
1.25 INCHES. THIS COUPLED WITH THE AID OF UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR THE
TERRAIN AND SOME DEEPER LAYER SHEAR SHOULD FAVOR SOME LOCALLY
ORGANIZED POCKETS OF CONVECTION WITH RAINFALL RATES CAPABLE OF
REACHING 1.5 INCHES/HOUR WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CORES.
THE LATEST HIRES MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORT SOME SPOTTY 2 TO 3 INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED CONCERN FOR SOME RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND FLASH FLOODING, AND
PARTICULARLY NEAR SOME OF THE MORE SENSITIVE AND RUGGED TERRAIN.
ORRISON
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ALY...BTV...CAR...GYX...
ATTN...RFC...TAR...NWC...
LAT...LON 47106939 46646847 45116877 43657045 42987174
42917337 43517438 44297468 44777397 44927263
45287127 46057062 46607009
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