870
AWUS01 KWNH 262350
FFGMPD
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-270549-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0535
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
749 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, FAR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS,
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI, WESTERN KENTUCKY, SOUTHERN ILLINOIS,
FAR NORTHERN ARKANSAS
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 262349Z - 270549Z
SUMMARY...AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING ARE EXPECTED AS STORMS INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR/SATELLITE/MESOANALYSES INDICATE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG A LEFT-OVER BOUNDARY
FROM PRIOR CONVECTION FROM NEAR ENID, OK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO
NEAR ROLLA, MO. THE UPDRAFTS WERE RESPONDING TO INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER A BROADER PART OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THAT WAS ENHANCING SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THAT
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. VERY HIGH PW (AROUND 2+ INCHES) AND
STRONG INSTABILITY (3500 J/KG MLCAPE) WAS FOSTERING ROBUST
UPDRAFTS, WHILE MODEST WESTERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT WAS ENABLING
SLOW CELL MOVEMENT IN ADDITION TO LOCAL MERGERS. 1 INCH/HR RAIN
RATES WERE ALREADY BEING ESTIMATED PER MRMS NEAR SOME STORMS -
PARTICULARLY NEAR ENID AND JOPLIN. ADDITIONALLY, RAINFALL WAS
OCCURRING ATOP WET/WATERLOGGED SOILS FROM PRIOR RAINFALL, WITH 3-7
INCH RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS IN SOME AREAS ALONG
WITH IMPACTS (SOME SIGNIFICANT).
THE REDEVELOPMENT OF ONGOING, SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION IN THESE
AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RENEWED FLASH FLOOD RISK IN MUCH OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY, A SECONDARY AREA OF CONCERN EXISTS NEAR
CAPE GIRARDEAU AND VICINITY, WHERE 2-4 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS HAS RESULTED IN LOCAL IMPACTS. UPSTREAM
CONVECTION SHOULD APPROACH THAT REGION OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS,
WITH A RENEWED FLASH FLOOD RISK EXPECTED.
CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A SERIES OF BOTH CLUSTERS AND LINEAR
SEGMENTS WITH PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR LOCAL TRAINING AND
BACKBUILDING. AREAS OF 2-3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED.
FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY, AND SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS REMAIN POSSIBLE.
COOK
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...MEG...OUN...PAH...
SGF...TSA...
ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 38609217 38588986 38048799 37288789 36598908
36249201 35699630 35649859 36129890 36979864
37249768 37899506
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