005
AWUS01 KWNH 270521
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-271000-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0536
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
120 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN KANSAS, NORTHERN & CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 270519Z - 271000Z
SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. RAINFALL RATES OF
1-2"/HR ARE EXPECTED, WITH THROUGH REPEATING ROUNDS COULD GENERATE
2-3" OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. FLASH FLOODING MAY
RESULT.
DISCUSSION...THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC TONIGHT INDICATES TWO
CLUSTERS OF SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING ACROSS OK. THE
FIRST IS A VERY SLOW MOVING AREA ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OK, WHILE A
SECOND AREA IS STEADILY EXPANDING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OK. THIS
ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING WITHIN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS
CHARACTERIZED BY PWS OF 1.8 - 2.1 INCHES, AND MUCAPE OF MORE THAN
2000 J/KG LEADING TO HOURLY RAINFALL MEASURED BY MRMS IN EXCESS OF
2" IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS BEING DRIVEN
BOTH BY SUBTLE PVA/HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE, AND THE INCREASINGLY IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT OF
THE ACCELERATING LLJ FROM THE S/SW.
AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THE
RESPONSE AT THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE A CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION OF
THE LLJ, PROGGED TO RISE FROM THE CURRENT 25-30 KTS (MEASURED VIA
REGIONAL VWPS) TO AS HIGH AS 40+ KTS BY DAYBREAK. WHILE THIS WILL
ALSO FEATURE SOME SUBTLE VEERING MORE TO THE SW WHICH WILL REDUCE
THE RESULTING UPGLIDE, THE ACCOMPANYING MOIST ADVECTION WILL REACH
MORE THAN +2 SIGMA ACCORDING TO THE SREF, MAINTAINING ROBUST PWS
TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HIGH-RES CAMS SUGGEST THAT STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND IN THE VICINITY
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT POSITIONED NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER, WITH
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE
SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES EAST. CELLS THAT FORM ALONG THE LLJ WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BACKBUILD AND MOVE SLOWLY NW TO SE BEFORE
THE CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE SWEEPS THROUGH BY
MORNING. THIS SUGGESTS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
STORMS IN MANY AREAS, AND WITH BOTH THE HREF AND REFS INDICATING A
30-60% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 1"/HR RAINFALL RATES, TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATION OF 2-3" WITH HIGHER TOTALS IS EXPECTED.
THIS AREA HAS BEEN SATURATED RECENTLY, REFLECTED BY 7-DAY RAINFALL
THAT HAS BEEN GENERALLY MORE THAN 300% OF NORMAL (IN SOME PLACES
MORE THAN 600% OF NORMAL) WHICH HAS REDUCED FFG TO AS LOW AS
1.5-2"/3HRS. ANY HEAVY RAIN RATES MOVING ATOP THESE VULNERABLE
SOILS WOULD LIKELY CREATE RAPID RUNOFF, SO INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING MAY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
WEISS
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...ICT...OUN...SGF...TSA...
ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 37979929 37879810 37679663 37439566 37029438
36509413 36009428 35659502 35439604 35329717
35339844 35509915 35810014 36370095 37060115
37420101 37710074 37930001
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