996
AWUS01 KWNH 271808
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-280000-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0541
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
207 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST VA AND EASTERN NC
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 271806Z - 280000Z
SUMMARY...HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. RELATIVELY SLOW CELL
MOTIONS AND BACKBUILDING CONVECTION WILL LEAD TO HIGH RAINFALL
RATES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING THROUGH 8 PM.
DISCUSSION...REGIONAL DOPPLER RADARS ARE INDICATING A RAPID
INCREASE IN SLOW MOVING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND EXTENDING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE HAMPTON
ROADS AREA OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. THIS IS ALSO SEEN ON RECENT
GOES-E VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH EXPANDING ANVIL
CANOPIES AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS.
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING GIVEN
ANOMALOUS 2.0-2.2 INCH PWS, 1500-2500 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE,
AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KNOTS PER RECENT
SPC MESOANALYSIS. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND
SURFACE WIND CONVERGENCE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR, AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS
WILL SUPPORT SOME BACK-BUILDING STORMS WITH HIGHER RAINFALL RATES
POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 2 INCHES PER HOUR.
THE LATEST CAM GUIDANCE SUITE VARIES ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIEST QPF, BUT MOST AGREE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR 2-4 INCH MAXIMA
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS REGION THROUGH 8 PM LOCAL TIME. MUCH OF
THIS IS LIKELY TO FALL WITHIN A TWO HOUR TIME PERIOD FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AFFECTED, AND EPISODES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS A RESULT.
HAMRICK
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...ILM...MHX...RAH...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...
LAT...LON 37727668 37567632 37467619 37207616 36927588
36607583 36337583 36067597 35847602 35537623
35087653 34777694 34377747 33917774 33787830
33977860 34447910 34967929 35497921 35867893
36507828 36847798 37327776 37637748 37707711
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