705
AWUS01 KWNH 280015
FFGMPD
VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-280600-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0543
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
812 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL KY...NORTHERN TN
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 280012Z - 280600Z
SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE LATE EVENING INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL INSTANCES
OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY INTO NORTHERN TENNESSEE
THROUGH 2Z.
DISCUSSION...REGIONAL DOPPLER RADARS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LARGE
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN KENTUCKY, WITH MULTIPLE AREAS OF TRAINING CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS LEADING TO ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES PER
HOUR AT TIMES. MUCH OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY HAS ALREADY BEEN HAMMERED
WITH EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY, WITH MANY REPORTS IN
EXCESS OF 4 INCHES ALREADY, AND THEREFORE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
SEVERELY REDUCED.
THE LATEST CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL PROBABLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND
AFFECT AREAS ACROSS THE STATE LINE INTO NORTHERN TENNESSEE, MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
COMPLEX TO TAP INTO A MORE UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2500 J/KG IS PRESENT
AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF ABOUT 30 KNOTS. PWS ARE ALSO QUITE
HIGH, AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MAXIMA OF 2-4 INCHES, AND ISOLATED
HIGHER TOTALS, WITHIN THE MAIN AXIS OF TRAINING CONVECTION. GIVEN
THE EXTREMELY SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF KENTUCKY,
FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED LIKELY.
HAMRICK
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...MEG...MRX...OHX...PAH...
ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...
LAT...LON 38008512 37668378 36618349 35738380 35438418
35388487 35608590 36078713 36338813 36618877
36948901 37358880 37558830 37858668
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page