761
AWUS01 KWNH 161600
FFGMPD
AZZ000-CAZ000-162100-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0741
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1159 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 161600Z - 162100Z
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED
REPEATING TO SUPPORT .5-1"/HR RATES AND LOCALIZED 1-2" TOTALS IN
2-3HRS. ISOLATED INCIDENT OR TWO OF FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...GOES-W VISIBLE AND 10.3UM EIR LOOPS DEPICT A RECENT
UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EMERGING OUT OF THE WESTERN MOGOLLON
RIM INTO THE EASTERN LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY OF WESTERN AZ. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SAN
FRANCISCO PLATEAU THOUGH WV SUITE SUGGESTS A WEAK JET STREAK ALONG
THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE 250MB CLOSED RIDGE IS PROVIDING SOME
WEAK BUT SUFFICIENT DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN RIM INTO
WEST-CENTRAL AZ.
IN THE LOWER LEVELS, RETURN SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW
THROUGH THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IS WEAK BUT STILL FLUXING
TDS IN THE UPPER 60S INTO THE AREA. TEMPEARTURE/MOISTURE PROFILES
FROM 12Z RAOBS AND RAP FORECAST, SHOW 700-500 RELATIVELY SATURATED
PROFILES ADVECTED FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE WAVE, BUT ALSO
SOME WEAK HINT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT TO STEEPEN THE PROFILE
EVER SO SLIGHTLY. THE OVERLAP OF THE RETURN HEATING AT THE
SURFACE COMBINED IS SUPPORTIVE OF A BROADENING AREA OF
CONDITIONALY UNSTABLE AIR WITH MLCAPES TO 1250 J/KG; AND WHILE THE
MODELS REMAINED CAPPED, THE CONVECTIVE INITATION SUGGESTS THE
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT OF DPVA/DIVERGENCE AND SOME 850-600MB MOISTURE
FLUX CONVERGENCE (DUE TO SOLID DIRECTIONAL SHEAR) IS SUPPORTIVE OF
ELEVATED DEVELOPMENT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BELOW CLOUD LEVELS
LIKELY WILL LIMIT EVAPORATION OF RAINFALL AND GIVEN TOTAL PWATS OF
2"+, RATES UP TO 1"/HR IN STRONGEST (THOUGH NARROW) CORES ARE
POSSIBLE.
DEEP LAYER STEERING SUPPORTS A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST CELL MOTIONS AT
WEAK TO MODEST SPEEDS (5-10 KTS) TO ALLOW FOR SOME RESIDENCY FOR
THE CORES, BUT IT IS ALSO THE ORIENTATION OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
NOTED IN RADAR/SATELLITE THAT SUGGEST SOME SHORT-TERM REPEATING IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
SPOTS OF 1-2", WITH BULK SUB-HOURLY TOTALS UP TO .75-1" WHICH
GIVEN THE HARDER GROUND CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN NEARLY
HYDROPHOBIC RUN-OFF ALLOWING FOR A POSSIBLE INCIDENT OR TWO OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN LONGEVITY OF THE
CONVECTION MAINLY AS VERY LIMITED SUPPORT FOR ONGOING CONVECTION
WAS EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL HI-RES CAM SUITE.
GALLINA
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...
ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...
LAT...LON 34711332 34541283 34091252 33681243 33041259
32431352 32461447 32981480 33711477 34341438
34521392
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