377
AWUS01 KWNH 161850
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-170048-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0742
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
249 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN TEXAS
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 161848Z - 170048Z
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS
WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER LOW CENTER THIS AFTERNOON.
RATE RATES OF 1.5 TO 2"/HR SHOULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 1930Z, AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE SOUTHEAST CORNER
OF NEW MEXICO IS AIDING INSTABILITY OVER WEST TEXAS WITH LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER A BOUNDARY PROVIDING GULF-SOURCED MOISTURE TO
THE PERMIAN BASIN, PECOS VALLEY, AND DAVID MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE IS
ELEVATED WITH PW OF 1.5" EDGING INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN AND AROUND
1.3" OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT FOR RAPID
DEVELOPMENT WITH SBCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. RAIN RATES FROM KMAF ARE
CURRENTLY UP TO 1.5" THOUGH FURTHER DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW
LOCALIZED 2"/HR RATES. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY AROUND
2"/HR OUTSIDE THE PERMIAN BASIN WHERE IT'S ABOVE 3"/HR. CYCLONIC
MOTION TO THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW REPEATING CELLS.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LOW SHOULD REMAIN STATIONARY, SO ACTIVITY MAY REPEAT A
FAIR AMOUNT AND ALSO EXPAND INTO THE BIG BEND REGION BY EVENING.
JACKSON
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...
LAT...LON 32800108 31640089 30330178 30050245 29270288
29320362 29530423 29750456 30210483 31550462
32750316
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