266
AWUS01 KWNH 161917
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-170115-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0743
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
316 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...UTAH AND ARIZONA
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 161915Z - 170115Z
SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED TERRAIN BASED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO THIS
EVENING. HOURLY RAINFALL TO 2.0" ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 19Z... TERRAIN-BASED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN UTAH AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL ARIZONA.
ELEVATED MOISTURE WITH 1.1" PW OVER SOUTHERN UTAH AND ABOVE THE
MOGOLLON RIM WHICH IS ABOUT 2 SIGMA ABOVE NORMAL. MORNING FULL
SUNSHINE OVER UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA HAVE AIDED THE EARLY
AFTERNOON RAPID DEVELOPMENT WITH CENTRAL ARIZONA EXPECTED TO CATCH
UP AFTER A CLOUDY MORNING PER GOES-WEST.
LIGHT FLOW IS OVER THIS REGION BETWEEN TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND AN UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN TEXAS. THIS LACK OF SHEAR
SHOULD CAUSE MOST CELLS TO BE DEFEATED BY THEIR RAIN, BUT ENOUGH
MOISTURE EXISTS TO WARRANT AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD RISK,
ESPECIALLY FOR VULNERABLE AREAS OF TERRAIN AND SLOT CANYONS.
JACKSON
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...VEF...
ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...
LAT...LON 40301112 39610939 39030947 38701021 38051103
37301163 36431180 35501130 34550924 33940920
33760966 33751031 33841154 33941254 34371300
35161364 35531395 36131402 37831320 38721294
39481225
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