521
AWUS01 KWNH 161957
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-170155-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0744
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
356 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 161953Z - 170155Z
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUD
COVER FROM THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO ERODE. ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW HOURLY RAINFALL TO 2.0" WITH FLASH FLOODING COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO RISE FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
LOCALIZED CONSIDERABLE FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 1945Z...SCATTERED TERRAIN-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF
LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM THIS MORNING. CLOUDS STILL LINGER OVER
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA PER GOES-WEST IMAGERY, THOUGH EROSION CONTINUES.
ELEVATED MOISTURE IS ACROSS THIS AREA WITH 1.3" PW OVER SOUTHWEST
NEW MEXICO AND 1.7" AT TUCSON PER GPS DATA. THIS MOISTURE IS 2 TO
3 SIGMA ABOVE NORMAL. INSTABILITY IS INCREASING WITH THE SUNSHINE
WITH SBCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG IN NM WITH CIN QUICKLY ERODING AS
CLOUD COVER CLEARS.
A NOTABLE FLASH FLOOD RISK REMAINS ON TRACK FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
GIVEN SEVERAL HOURS OF DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AS CLOUDS ERODE
TOWARD THE TUCSON AREA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP
ACTIVITY MOVING SOUTH AS LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MAINTAINS
MOISTURE. ACTIVITY ON THE EDGE OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO HAS RAINFALL ESTIMATES TO 2"/HR PER KEMX WHICH IS A
REASONABLE PROXY TO LATER AFTERNOON ACTIVITY IN SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD
INCREASED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE BY LATER AFTERNOON. THIS EVENT IS
EXPECTED TO LAST WELL INTO THE EVENING WITH CONSIDERABLE IMPACTS
POSSIBLE BY THEN, SO STAY TUNED FOR SUBSEQUENT DISCUSSIONS.
JACKSON
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...TWC...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...
LAT...LON 34490910 34130786 33230736 31950777 31230808
31200935 31171064 31421204 31861240 32391148
32521082 32741026 33680976 34040921
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