767
AWUS01 KWNH 162143
FFGMPD
TXZ000-170100-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0745
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
542 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TEXAS
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 162140Z - 170100Z
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TRACK NORTH INTO EASTERN
SECTIONS OF ONGOING CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING INTO THIS EVENING.
RAIN RATES OF 1"-1.5"/HR WILL ADD TO THE FLOOD CONCERN IN THIS
EXTREMELY SENSITIVE AREA.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 2130Z, THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST
HOUR ALONG I-35 SOUTH FROM AUSTIN AND THEN SOUTHWEST OF SAN
ANTONIO. THIS IS NOTABLY EAST/SOUTH OF THE ONGOING CATASTROPHIC
FLOOD AREA IN THE HILL COUNTRY. HOWEVER, NORTHWARD MOVEMENT FROM
DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING THEM ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE HILL COUNTRY REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. HOURLY RAIN ESTIMATES
FROM KEWX ARE GENERALLY AROUND 1"/HR. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE 1500 J/KG
SBCAPE AND PW OF 1.9" AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY, FURTHER UPSCALE
GROWTH AN RATES OF 1.5"/HR ARE POSSIBLE.
THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS
OUTSIDE THE ONGOING FLOODING. 18Z FFG IS AROUND 1"/HR IN THE
EASTERN HILL COUNTRY WHICH HAS BEEN GENERALLY EAST OF THE EXTREME
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 24HRS (THE AREA HAD EXTREME RAINFALL ON
WEDNESDAY). CONVECTIVE INHIBITION (CIN) IS PRESENT OVER THE HILL
COUNTRY AND COULD LIMIT RAINFALL REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW (30KT AT 850MB) MAY OVERRIDE THIS.
PROGRESSION OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED AND
EXTRA CAUTION SHOULD BE TAKEN IN AREAS OF ONGOING FLOOD RESPONSE.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE IN THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY WHICH IS
GENERALLY DOWNSTREAM OF THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING EXTREME RAINFALL.
JACKSON
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...
LAT...LON 31239706 30819670 29509733 28529852 27829982
28290048 28860006 29569954 30319899 30809825
31139761
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