382
AWUS01 KWNH 162213
FFGMPD
MOZ000-170215-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0746
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
612 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...MISSOURI
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 162210Z - 170215Z
SUMMARY...HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT RAINFALL OF 2-4" IN A
LITTLE OVER AN HOUR IN THE DISCUSSION AREA.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 22Z, HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG A TROUGH
EXTENDING EAST-WEST SOUTH OF I-70 IN MISSOURI. OUTFLOW FROM
EARLIER ACTIVITY IN THE KC METRO IS WORKING ITS WAY EAST ALONG
THIS TROUGH AND CURRENTLY IN PETTIS CO. AS THE OUTFLOW CONVERGES
WITH ONGOING ACTIVITY, PARTICULARLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 3-4"/HR IS
SEEN LIKE WHAT RECENTLY OCCURRED IN JOHNSON CO.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS PRIMED FOR FLASH FLOODING WITH GULF-SOURCED
MOISTURE (PW OF 2.2" WHICH IS 2 SIGMA ABOVE NORMAL) AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY (SBCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG). RAPID DEVELOPMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS OUTFLOW. FORTUNATELY ACTIVITY
WANES QUICKLY BEHIND THE OUTFLOW WHICH SHOULD BRING AN END TO
FLASH FLOOD CAUSING RAIN OVER THE WESTERN PART OF MO BY 01Z OR SO.
OUTFLOW FROM PRIOR ACTIVITY OVER ST. LOUIS IS APPARENT AS MOVING
WEST ALONG I-70 INTO MONTGOMERY CO MO. THIS COULD ALSO ENHANCE,
THEN KILL OFF ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
AREA INCLUDING SOUTH-CENTRAL MO WHICH MAY REMAIN OUTSIDE THE
INFLUENCE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FOR AWHILE. AS OF NOW FLASH
FLOODING SHOULD BE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
JACKSON
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...PAH...SGF...
ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...NWC...
LAT...LON 39459341 39119157 38229117 37899021 37279004
37199039 37409252 38009374 38849370 39189370
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