250
AWUS01 KWNH 170124
FFGMPD
AZZ000-170715-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0748
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
923 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 170122Z - 170715Z
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED MOISTURE AND CONTINUED INSTABILITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO ALLOW HOURLY RAINFALL TO 2.0" AND SCATTERED FLASH
FLOODING.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 01Z...HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE TUCSON
METRO AREA (WITH ESTIMATED RAIN RATES FROM KEMX TO 2"/HR) AS WELL
AS ISOLATED COVERAGE ON THE MOGOLLON RIM. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
SHOULD CONSOLIDATE TO THE PHOENIX METRO THROUGH THE EVENING.
ELEVATED MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE AREA BELOW THE MOGOLLON RIM WITH
PW OF 1.7" TO 2.0" PW WHICH IS ABOUT 2.5 SIGMA ABOVE NORMAL.
CLOUD COVER PERSISTED OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA UNTIL AROUND 20Z
WHICH LIMITED THE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF THIS FLASH FLOOD SCENARIO.
THAT SAID, SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPED AND PERSISTS BELOW THE
MOGOLLON RIM TO ALLOW FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. THIS AREA IS BELOW AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN AZ AND AN
UPPER LOW OVER WEST TEXAS WHICH PROVIDES NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER SOUTHEAST AZ WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING
OVER SOUTHERN AZ THROUGH THIS EVENING.
RECENT HRRR AND RRFS RUNS HAVE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MOVING OVER THIS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 1-3" WOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WHERE THEY OCCUR.
JACKSON
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...
ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...
LAT...LON 34551143 34381067 33720998 32910977 32320958
31430975 31261006 31391200 31961225 32431236
32681239 33511240 33901249 34131286 34331284
34481241
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