395
AWUS01 KWNH 170829
FFGMPD
TXZ000-171428-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0751
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
428 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AND SURROUNDING AREAS
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 170828Z - 171428Z
SUMMARY...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS SENSITIVE AREAS OF THE
TEXAS HILL COUNTRY. THIS RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A FLASH
FLOOD RISK WHILE EXPANDING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE BIG
COUNTRY/ABILENE AND WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS AREAS THROUGH 14Z.
DISCUSSION...ASCENT TIED TO A WEAK MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE
TRANSPECOS AND 30-35KT 850MB SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS MAINTAINED
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE CELLS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS
HILL COUNTRY TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE CELLS WERE IN RELATIVE CLOSE
PROXIMITY, PROLONGING RAIN RATES AND RESULTING IN 2-4 INCH TOTALS
IN ~3 HOURS OVER UVALDE AND REAL COUNTIES. THESE AREAS REMAIN
VERY SENSITIVE FROM PRIOR RAINFALL, WITH FFG THRESHOLDS BETWEEN 0
AND 1 INCH/HR BEING READILY EXCEEDED BY THE CONVECTION. MRMS
FLASH RESPONSES SUGGEST THAT EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING
MAY HAVE OCCURRED AND/OR WORSENED IN THESE REGIONS.
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD AMID DEEP SOUTHERLY
STEERING FLOW. AREAS NEAR JUNCTION, TX ARE IN LINE FOR
POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF 1+ INCH/HR RAIN RATES AT TIMES AS
STORMS MOVE THROUGH, POSING A CONTINUED AND PERHAPS SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOOD RISK. OTHER BANDS OF CONVECTION WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD
WHILE MATURING NEARER THE US 277 CORRIDOR (DEL RIO TO SAN ANGELO
TO ABILENE) AND POINTS JUST WEST OF THERE, POSTING A MORE ISOLATED
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AS FFGS/GROUND SENSITIVITIES ARE A BIT LESS
SEVERE IN THOSE REGIONS.
ON THE WHOLE, EXPECT FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE IN MANY
PARTS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 14Z/9A CENTRAL. SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS MAY BE NOTED WHERE BACKBUILDING IS PRONOUNCED AND 1+
INCH/HR RAIN RATES CAN OCCUR 1) FOR MORE THAN AN HOUR AND/OR 2) IN
THE MORE SENSITIVE REGIONS.
COOK
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 33979926 33649814 32099811 30189872 29309946
29370067 30070208 30960196 32270114
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