000
AWUS01 KWNH 172258
FFGMPD
GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-180400-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0758
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
657 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...TENNESSEE VALLEY
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 172256Z - 180400Z
SUMMARY...FOCUSED CORRIDORS OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL RATES UP TO 3"/HR WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE SCATTERED FLASH
FLOODING THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION...MIDDLE PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE HAVE SEEN
CONVERGENCE OF OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS IN THE REGION.
THESE FOCUSED CORRIDORS OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS ARE REACHING PEAK
INTENSITY HERE AROUND 23Z AND SHOULD MAXIMIZE THE ROBUST MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY PRESENT. PW IS AROUND 2.3" THROUGH THIS AREA WITH
SBCAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG AND DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYERS. LIGHT STEERING
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW OUTFLOW DRIVEN ACTIVITY. RAINFALL
RATES UP TO 3"/HR CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED.
RECENT HRRR RUNS ARE A BIT BEHIND ON THIS ACTIVITY CONSOLIDATING
LIKE IT IS, BUT GIVES THE GENERAL THREAT AREA FINE ENOUGH WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 2-4" OVER SCATTERED AREAS THROUGH 04Z WHEN ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE FINISHED.
JACKSON
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FFC...HUN...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX...PAH...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...
LAT...LON 38338626 38228518 37818459 36798445 35688448
34888449 34558482 34558557 35458628 36338732
37148758 37998752
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