428
AWUS01 KWNH 172329
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-180430-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0759
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
729 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 172328Z - 180430Z
SUMMARY...HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO AND SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THROUGH THE EVENING.
INSTABILITY IS LESS OVER LAKE ERIE, SO THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE
BEFORE REACHING CLEVELAND. UNTIL THEN, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
CAN BE EXPECTED FROM RAINFALL RATES UP TO 3"/HR.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 23Z...HEAVY THUNDERSTORM SEGMENTS ARE IN A
BROKEN LIKE FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL MI THROUGH NORTHEAST OH AND MOVING
EAST AT A FAIRLY SLOW PACE. THIS ACTIVITY IS ON THE LEADING EDGE
OF A WARM FRONT WITH ABUNDANT GULF-SOURCED MOISTURE STREAMING IN
WITH IT. INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT DROPS
OFF NOTABLY BY LAKE ERIE. THEREFORE, THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS TO
THE TOLEDO AND DETROIT METROS, BUT NOT SO FAR EAST AS CLEVELAND.
THE EXCESSIVE WILDFIRE SMOKE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT
SHOULD ALSO ENHANCE RAINFALL GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF AEROSOLS FOR
DROPS TO COALESCE UPON.
STEERING FLOW IS WLY AT 20KT, BUT THERE IS SOME UPWIND PROPAGATION
ONGOING PER RADAR ANALYSIS. LOCALIZED RAINFALL TO 3"/HR IS
ESTIMATED FROM KIWX JUST NORTH OF BRYAN, OH WITH MORE GENERAL
2"/HR RATES EXPECTED OTHERWISE. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS AROUND
2"/HR, SO FLASH FLOODING SHOULD REMAIN LOCALIZED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. RECENT HRRR RUNS AGREE WITH A 2-4" RAINFALL THREAT THAT
ENDS BEFORE CLEVELAND THIS EVENING.
JACKSON
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...GRR...ILN...IWX...
ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...
LAT...LON 42928391 42848289 42538271 42238289 42038305
41788322 41658278 41558240 41598207 41278198
40538214 40088274 40228332 41148411 41698485
42598491
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