190
AWUS01 KWNH 172347
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-180445-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0760
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
746 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...ARIZONA
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 172345Z - 180445Z
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHWEST UTAH AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAVE DESERT INCLUDING MUCH OF
NORTHWEST ARIZONA TO THE WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM INTO THIS EVENING.
HOURLY RAINFALL TO 2.0" ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 2330Z...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHWEST UTAH DOWN TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM IN AZ.
OUTFLOW HAS DRIVEN ACTIVITY OFF TERRAIN WITH CONTINUED LIGHT
STEERING FLOW KEEPING A PULSE NATURE TO THE ACTIVITY. MUCAPE UP TO
2000 J/KG AND HIGH MOISTURE OF 2" OVER THE COLORADO RIVER TO 1.3"
IN SOUTHWEST UTAH ARE PROMOTING HEAVY DEVELOPMENT WITH HOURLY
RATES TO 2"/HR. ACTIVITY OUTSIDE LAS VEGAS SHIFTED SOUTH, SO THAT
METRO AREA SEEMS OK FOR NOW IN TERMS OF HEAVY RAIN.
RECENT HRRR RUNS DEPICT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AND A GENERAL
SOUTHWARD TREND TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
SHOULD CONTINUE TO OCCUR, PARTICULARLY IN FLOOD PRONE TERRAIN,
SLOT CANYONS, AND BURN SCARS.
JACKSON
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...SLC...VEF...
ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...
LAT...LON 38581240 37711250 36361254 35271188 34551151
33971155 33681352 34471483 35161575 35571505
36061407 37291386 38221354 38571274
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