427
AWUS01 KWNH 070032
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-070530-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0959
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
831 PM EDT THU AUG 06 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN AZ INTO SOUTHWESTERN NM
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 070030Z - 070530Z
SUMMARY...A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN AZ INTO SOUTHWESTERN NM THROUGH 05Z TO 06Z. WHILE
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED, LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO
2 IN/HR LOOK LIKELY AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION...0015Z VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED
LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN AZ INTO SOUTHWESTERN NM, WITH SOME SOUTHWARD
DEVELOPMENT OF CELLS OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS, ON AND WELL AHEAD OF
RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOW. CLOUD TOPS ON INFRARED IMAGERY HAVE BEEN
WARMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW LOOKS TO BE
IGNITING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH WHERE MLCAPE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 500-1500 J/KG WITH LITTLE TO NO INHIBITION VIA THE
00Z SPC MESOANALYSIS. IN ADDITION, PW VALUES WERE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY (1.0 TO 1.4 INCHES), NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY AUGUST.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON TERRAIN FEATURES AND STORMS
FORMING ON THE ADVANCING OUTFLOW WILL PROVIDE A LOCALLY INCREASED
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS. HOURLY
AND SUB-HOURLY RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES APPEARS TO FIT THE
ENVIRONMENT GIVEN 0-6 KM AGL MEAN LAYER WINDS OF LESS THAN 5 KT IN
ADVANCE OF ANY OUTFLOW. EVEN STORMS DEVELOPING ON OUTFLOW COULD
PRODUCE A QUICK 15-30 MINUTES OF RAIN NEAR 1 INCH. ANY FLASH FLOOD
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCALIZED AND BEYOND 05Z - 06Z,
FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BULK OF ANY LINGERING CONVECTION
SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE BORDER INTO MEXICO, FOLLOWING A MEAN
NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE THE EAST SIDE OF A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN AZ.
OTTO
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...
LAT...LON 33810999 33790984 33740973 33650959 33530947
33450936 33420916 33410891 33360868 33260844
32900812 32120783 31430782 31130820 31050893
31110988 31281048 31941060 32861046 33381042
33611033 33751021 33801007
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