027
AWUS01 KWNH 070525
FFGMPD
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-071000-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0960
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
124 AM EDT FRI AUG 07 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KANSAS
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 070523Z - 071000Z
SUMMARY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS AND THEN REPEAT THROUGH THE MORNING. RAINFALL RATES
OF 1-2"/HR WILL BE COMMON, LEADING TO 2-4" OF RAIN. FLASH FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC TONIGHT SHOWS DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY
IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NOSE OF A MODEST BUT INTENSIFYING 850MB
LLJ WHICH HAS RISEN TO 20-30 KTS OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS AND INTO
OKLAHOMA. THIS LLJ IS EMANATING FROM A PLUME OF 1.5" PWS AND 2000
J/KG MUCAPE, HELPING TO TRANSPORT THESE ROBUST THERMODYNAMICS
NORTHWARD WHILE CONCURRENTLY ISENTROPICALLY ASCENDING A STATIONARY
FRONT TO THE SOUTH. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NOSE COMBINED WITH
THIS ISENTROPIC LIFT IS OCCURRING WITHIN A REGION OF MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE TO ADDITIONALLY ENHANCE ASCENT. IT IS THIS
WAA BENEATH THE COLLOCATED SYNOPTIC LIFT WHICH IS RESULTING IN THE
RAPID EXPANSION OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PAST HOUR.
THE HIGH-RES CAMS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND THEN REPEAT ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS.
THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTLE INCREASE IN THE LLJ REACHING
30-35 KTS, WHILE SLOWLY VEERING MORE TO THE ENE. THE RESULTING WAA
SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT THERMODYNAMIC REPLENISHMENT TO ALLOW FOR
STORMS TO REPEATEDLY FIRE AND THEN TRACK SLOWLY E/SE THROUGH THE
MORNING. WITH RAIN RATES PROGGED TO BE 1-2"/HR AT TIMES (40-60%
CHANCE OF 1"+/HR FROM BOTH THE HREF AND REFS), REPEATING OF THESE
CELLS COULD CAUSE STRIPES OF 2-4" OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE (5-10% CHANCE OF 5 INCHES ACCORDING TO THE HREF).
7-DAY RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS HAS BEEN QUITE VARIABLE, WITH
SOME AREAS RECEIVING VERY LITTLE RAINFALL WHILE OTHERS HAVE
EXCEEDED 200% OF NORMAL. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A SHARP GRADIENT IN
SOIL MOISTURE, AND 3-HR FFG THAT VARIES FROM AS LOW AS 1.5" TO AS
HIGH AS 4" (GRADIENT FROM ENE TO WSW). DESPITE THIS, THE
LIKELIHOOD OF REPEATING HEAVY RAIN RATES CREATES FFG EXCEEDANCE
FROM THE HREF THAT SPIKES TO 20-30% LATER THIS MORNING, SUGGESTING
AT LEAST AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD RISK IS DEVELOPING. THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR IMPACTS APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN WICHITA AND TOPEKA (IN
THE VICINITY OF EMPORIA AND NORTH TO I-70) WHERE THE LLJ
CONVERGENCE MAY MAXIMIZE AND LINGER, BUT ANY LOCATION THAT
RECEIVES REPEATING ROUNDS, ESPECIALLY ATOP THE MORE SATURATED
SOILS, COULD EXPERIENCE IMPACTS DUE TO FLASH FLOODING.
WEISS
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...
ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 40039682 39609577 38999482 38129427 37329416
36819477 36749591 36849671 37329739 38159781
38839818 39539852 40029810
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