579
AWUS01 KWNH 070951
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-071500-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0961
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
550 AM EDT FRI AUG 07 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KANSAS
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 070949Z - 071500Z
SUMMARY...PERSISTENT AND SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING. RAINFALL RATES AS HIGH
AS 2"/HR ARE LIKELY WITHIN THESE STORMS, LEADING TO 2-4" OF RAIN
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A
CONTINUED EXPANSION OF CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS POSITIONED OVER
EASTERN KANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ONGOING FOR SEVERAL HOURS
NOW, AND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE MORNING. RECENT MRMS
HOURLY RAINFALL HAS BEEN AS MUCH AS 2" IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS, WITH
OVERNIGHT RAIN AS MUCH AS 4" IN A NARROW CORRIDOR BETWEEN I-35 AND
I-70 WEST OF EMPORIA LEADING TO FLASH UNIT STREAMFLOW RESPONSE AS
HIGH AS 300 CFS/SMI.
THE SETUP FOR CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL IS QUITE FAVORABLE. FORCING
FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO BE DRIVEN BY AN 850MB LLJ THAT HAS
STRENGTHENED TO 40 KTS OVER CENTRAL KS, WITH RAPIDLY VEERING WINDS
BETWEEN 925-700MB HELPING TO ADVECT THIS MOISTURE (OVERLAPPED WITH
MUCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG TO IMPROVE THERMODYNAMICS) INTO THE AREA.
THIS IS SEEN CLEARLY ON THE ADVECTED LPW FIELDS SHOWING
CONVERGENCE OF THE 850-700MB PW DIRECTLY INTO THE ONGOING
CONVECTION. THE ACCOMPANYING WAA IS NOT ONLY CONVERGING INTO
850-700MB BOUNDARY, BUT SIMULTANEOUSLY ISENTROPICALLY ASCENDING A
STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO THE SW WITHIN A REGION OF MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE TO ADDITIONALLY SUPPORT LARGE-SCALE LIFT.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE MORNING,
WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY HIGH-RES CAMS SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY.
RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2"/HR ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS AS INDICATED BY HREF AND REFS NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE FLASH FLOOD RISK ACROSS THE AREA AS STORMS
REPEATEDLY DEVELOP WITHIN THE WAA AND THEN TRACK E/SE. ALTHOUGH
INDIVIDUAL CELLS SHOULD BE GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE AS PROPAGATION
VECTORS ARE ABOVE 20 KTS, CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT BACK INTO THE
ELEVATED THERMODYNAMICS TO THE WEST WILL SUPPORT
TRAINING/REPEATING, AND THE HREF INDICATES A 20-25% CHANCE OF
LOCALLY AS MUCH AS AN ADDITIONAL 5" OF RAIN THROUGH LATE MORNING.
THIS WILL OCCUR ATOP SOILS THAT HAVE BECOME SATURATED ALREADY BY
MORNING RAINFALL, SO ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY QUICKLY
BECOME RUNOFF, LEADING TO AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.
WEISS
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...
ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 40319717 40299651 39599599 38489503 37889489
37229498 36759592 36819690 36869717 37079758
37389776 37939801 38789797 39509794 40089765
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