631
AWUS01 KWNH 071504
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-072101-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0962
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1102 AM EDT FRI AUG 07 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF PENNSYLVANIA, FAR NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA,
FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK STATE, WESTERN/NORTHERN MARYLAND
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 071501Z - 072101Z
SUMMARY...A FEW SPOTS OF FFG EXCEEDANCE WERE NOTED JUST NORTHEAST
OF PITTSBURGH OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. AT LEAST ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, WITH AN
INCREASING/EXPANDING THREAT EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION WAS NOTED PRIMARILY ACROSS
THE WESTERN 1/4 OF PA THIS MORNING, WITH MORE ISOLATED STORMS
OBSERVED OVER NORTHERN WV, CENTRAL OH, AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN NY
STATE. THE STORMS ARE IN AN ABUNDANTLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT (2+ INCH
PW) THAT, WHEN COMBINED WITH MODEST WESTERLY STEERING FLOW, WAS
FOSTERING AREAS OF 1-1.75 INCH/HR RAIN RATES THAT WERE LOCALLY
EXCEEDING FFG IN A FEW SPOTS. THE ONGOING SCENARIO SHOULD PERSIST
FOR A FEW HOURS DUE TO CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING OF THIS MOIST
AIRMASS AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM OHIO. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM.
WITH TIME, MODELS (PARTICULARLY CAMS) DEPICT AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS PARTICULARLY
FOCUSED ON CENTRAL PA AND VICINITY. THIS INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL GIVEN THE
HIGH PW AIRMASS AND MODEST STEERING FLOW, ALTHOUGH MODELS ALSO
HINT AT GRADUAL UPSCALE GROWTH INTO CLUSTERS/LINEAR SEGMENTS THAT
MIGHT FORWARD PROPAGATE AND LIMIT THE EXTENT (SPACE/INTENSITY) OF
RAIN RATES. STILL, WITH DOWNSTREAM AREAS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN PA
HAVING BEEN WET FROM PRIOR RAINFALL, INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON AT LEAST AN ISOLATED BASIS.
THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY EXTEND BEYOND THE 21Z EXPIRATION TIME OF
THIS MPD.
COOK
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...LWX...PBZ...PHI...RLX...
ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...
LAT...LON 42657839 42247627 41297545 39917576 39407742
39247979 40068077 41768004
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