219
AWUS01 KWNH 071525
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-072123-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0963
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1124 AM EDT FRI AUG 07 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA, NORTHERN IOWA, WESTERN
WISCONSIN
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 071523Z - 072123Z
SUMMARY...ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA
WILL POSE A FLASH FLOOD RISK AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 21Z/4P CENTRAL.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE QUICKLY DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN
MN AND VICINITY (NEAR WILLMAR, REDWOOD FALLS/WEST OF MANKATO) AND
WERE ALREADY PRODUCING SPOTS OF 1 INCH/HR RAIN RATES PER MRMS.
THE STORMS WERE IN A STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH 7-8C/KM
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, 2000+ J/KG MLCAPE, AND 1.5+ INCH PW VALUES
ALL SUPPORTING INTENSE UPDRAFTS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. STORMS ARE
ALSO FORMING AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL WAVE ALONG THE ND/MN BORDER, AND
CONFLUENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA WAS ALSO FOSTERING UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT AMID
MODEST CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.
MODELS/CAMS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND IN COVERAGE WHILE REMAINING INTENSE WITH EASTWARD
PROGRESSION ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA AND PERHAPS WESTERN WI
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT STORMS EVOLVE INTO
CLUSTERS/LINES THAT FORWARD PROPAGATE, THOUGH 1.5 INCH PW WILL
SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FFG THRESHOLDS ARE IN THE 1.5
INCH/HR RANGE (LOCALLY LOWER NEAR MINNEAPOLIS/ST. PAUL METRO) AND
MAY BE READILY EXCEEDED AT TIMES ON AT LEAST AN ISOLATED BASIS.
SOIL MOISTURE DATA (PER NASA) SUGGESTS WET SOILS WITH DOWNSTREAM
EXTENT INTO SOUTHEASTERN MN AND EASTERN IA, SUPPORTING AT LEAST AN
ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN THOSE AREAS. THIS WILL WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH 21Z/4P CENTRAL TODAY.
COOK
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...DMX...DVN...FSD...MPX...
ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...
LAT...LON 46059444 45819284 44919146 43779103 42809142
42259233 42179463 43159548 44159557 45639546
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