225
AWUS01 KWNH 071801
FFGMPD
MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-080000-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0964
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 07 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NEW YORK, NEW JERSEY, EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS, AND WESTERN CONNECTICUT
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 071800Z - 080000Z
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN FROM PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL
NEW YORK STATE WILL EVENTUALLY HELP PROMPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH
00Z/8P EASTERN.
DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY DEPICTS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PA/NY GENERALLY FROM ITHACA SOUTHWARD THROUGH
HARRISBURG AND EASTWARD TO NEAR SCRANTON. THE STORMS ARE IN AN
ABUNDANTLY MOIST AIRMASS (NEAR 2 INCH PW), AND WITH WEAK/MODEST
STEERING FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION (10-15 KNOTS FROM THE
WSW), LOCAL RAIN RATES TO AROUND 2 INCHES/HR HAVE BEEN NOTED PER
MRMS AT TIMES DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTIONS.
MEANWHILE, THE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS (ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA) IS HEATING UP/DESTABILIZATING AND WILL SOON
SUPPORT CONVECTION BOTH 1) MOVING EASTWARD FROM PA/NY INTO THE
REGION AND 2) DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. GROUND CONDITIONS ARE
WET/SENSITIVE FROM PRIOR RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, AND
LOCAL FFGS ARE NEAR ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN NJ AND AROUND 1 INCH/HR
FROM CENTRAL NJ THROUGH PHILADELPHIA NORTHWARD INTO MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NY STATE. AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING ARE EXPECTED AS STORMS
MIGRATE EASTWARD.
THE OVERALL DEGREE OF FLASH FLOOD RISK MAY DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE
MODE -- MORE FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTION (WITH UPSCALE GROWTH)
MIGHT LIMIT RAIN RATES SOME WHAT. RECENT RADAR TRENDS ARE
CONCERNING THOUGH, AND SUGGEST THAT A MIX OF LINES AND MERGING
CELLS CAN BE EXPECTED, INCREASING LOCAL RAIN RATES TO 2 INCHES AT
TIMES AND ON AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BASIS. FLASH FLOODING IS
LIKELY, AND SOME CONCERN EXISTS FOR IMPACTS TO URBAN AREAS FROM
PHILADELPHIA NORTHEASTWARD TO NEW YORK CITY AND POINTS NORTHWARD.
COOK
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...BUF...CTP...OKX...PHI...
ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...
LAT...LON 43247572 43247372 42247301 41467295 40727339
40157412 39847519 40277594 41587617 43017663
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