099
AWUS01 KWNH 072008
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-080200-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0966
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
407 PM EDT FRI AUG 07 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWESTERN AZ INTO SOUTHWESTERN UT AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NV
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 072005Z - 080200Z
SUMMARY...A FEW AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
02Z FROM NORTHWESTERN AZ INTO SOUTHWESTERN UT AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN/EASTERN NV. HOURLY TO SUB-HOURLY RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...1945Z SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED MATURING CUMULUS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
EASTERN/SOUTHERN NV INTO SOUTHWESTERN UT AND NORTHWESTERN AZ. PW
VALUES HAVE INCREASED COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO OVER SOUTHERN NV
AND SOUTHWESTERN UT WITH THE 18Z VEF SOUNDING SHOWING 1.4 INCHES
OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. PW VALUES WERE MOST ANOMALOUS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NV WITH 150 TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL DEPICTED FOR WHAT IS
ALREADY THE PEAK CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
THE UPPER PATTERN SHOWED THAT THE CENTER OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWESTERN UT WITH DEEPER LAYER STEERING
FLOW OF 5 KT OR LESS OVER THE REGION.
WHILE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINS AT THIS RELATIVELY EARLY HOUR
OUTSIDE OF THE TERRAIN, EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR CONTINUED DAYTIME
HEATING TO ERODE REMAINING CIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITH
EXPANDING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS THROUGH 23Z.
WHILE THE IMMEDIATE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ALONG THE NV/AZ MAY STAY
FREE FROM THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING GIVEN
UNCERTAINTIES OF ERODING CIN, SLOW MOVEMENT OF CELLS AND THE
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH 0.5 TO
1.0 INCHES IN 15-30 MINUTES EXPECTED IN NEIGHBORING LOCATIONS AND
INTO THE SLOT CANYON REGION OF SOUTHWESTERN UT. FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORM TOTALS GENERALLY IN THE 1-2 INCH
RANGE, ALTHOUGH STORM TOTALS LOCALLY OVER 2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
OTTO
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FGZ...LKN...SLC...VEF...
ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...
LAT...LON 39051410 38871305 38511233 37851180 37491170
36911162 36431150 36051149 35571138 35221148
34941190 34821314 34701381 35171470 35351506
35801576 36521648 37181676 37821681 38241656
38631622 38851566 39011507
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page