153
AWUS01 KWNH 072046
FFGMPD
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-080130-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0967
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
445 PM EDT FRI AUG 07 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...D.C. INTO NORTHEASTERN MD, NORTHERN DE AND
SOUTHERN NJ
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 072044Z - 080130Z
SUMMARY...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH 1 TO 3+ INCH TOTALS WILL POSE A
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING FROM D.C. THROUGH NORTHEASTERN MD, NORTHERN
DE AND SOUTHERN NJ. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE FROM NW TO SE THROUGH 01Z.
DISCUSSION...AREA RADAR IMAGERY AT 2030Z SHOWED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ADVANCING ESE ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PA
WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ADVANCING FROM SOUTHEASTERN PA INTO
NORTHERN MD. OUT AHEAD, A LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS WAS SUPPORTING
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS FROM BALTIMORE AND POINTS NORTH ALONG
I-95 IN NORTHEASTERN MD. WHILE THE OUTFLOW IS PROGRESSIVE TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST, CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD IS ALIGNED WITH
THE MEAN STEERING FLOW FROM WSW TO ENE OR SW TO NE, WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST BRIEF AREAS OF TRAINING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ADVANCING SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 ALONG
WITH PWS NEAR 2 INCHES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH RAINFALL RATES
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR. HOWEVER, WHERE CELL TRAINING
MAXIMIZES, HOURLY TOTALS IN 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WILL BE GREATEST ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR FROM D.C.
TO PHILADELPHIA, WITH THE THREAT ADVANCING DOWNSTREAM INTO
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NJ INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
OTTO
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PHI...
ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC...
LAT...LON 40347455 40347409 39877371 38967475 38707591
38827691 39067718 39407705 39857624 40247531
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