307
AWUS01 KWNH 080009
FFGMPD
NMZ000-080510-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0969
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
808 PM EDT FRI AUG 07 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN THIRD OF NM
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 080007Z - 080510Z
SUMMARY...ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EAST-CENTRAL TO EASTERN NM THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. PEAK HOURLY
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
DISCUSSION...2335Z INFRARED SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS,
NORTHWARD TOWARD ABOUT I-40. ADDITIONAL, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WERE LOCATED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NM, TO THE NORTH OF
I-40 AND EAST OF I-25. AN AXIS OF ESTIMATED MLCAPE RANGING FROM
500 TO 1500 J/KG EXTENDED SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN TX
PANHANDLE INTO EAST-CENTRAL NM WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
0.8 TO 1.1 INCHES EXISTED, PER 23Z SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA.
THE NORTHERN HALF OF NM WAS SITUATED BENEATH THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE
OF A LARGE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN UT,
WITH WEAK DEEPER LAYER STEERING FLOW FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
OF LESS THAN 10 KT. THIS WAS CONTRIBUTING TO A FEW SLOW MOVING
CELLS BUT A BROADER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED
FROM TORRANCE COUNTY, NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN SAN MIGUEL
COUNTY. MEANWHILE, THE CURRENT 15 KT VAD WIND MEASURED 850 MB WIND
AT KFDX IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FOLLOWING THE TYPICAL DIURNAL
CYCLE INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE BY 04Z FROM THE NORTHERN TX/NM
BORDER INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM, WHICH SHOULD INCREASE
OVERRUNNING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AS IT LIKELY CONTINUES TO ADVANCE S TO SSE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF LOCALLY HIGH
HOURLY RAINFALL VALUES OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES, BUT WITH ISOLATED
HOURLY TOTALS NEAR 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE HIGH RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF NM OVER THE
NEXT 3-5 HOURS. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL LIKELY END FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH WITH TIME WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS GENERALLY EXPECTED
TO BE CAPPED IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE (LOCALLY 2+ INCH TOTALS
POSSIBLE) GIVEN AN EXPECTATION FOR INCREASING FORWARD SPEED WITH
THE ADVANCING OUTFLOW.
OTTO
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 36250359 36160310 35180313 33600358 32720386
32330456 32330528 32480564 32910586 33840591
34150584 35260568 35810528 36180406
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