851
AWUS01 KWNH 080326
FFGMPD
LAZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-080900-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0971
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1125 PM EDT FRI AUG 07 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 080324Z - 080900Z
SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY
ACROSS THE OZARKS AND TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL
RATES OF 1-2"/HR ARE EXPECTED, WHICH THROUGH SLOW STORM MOTIONS OR
REPEATING CELLS COULD PRODUCE 2-3" OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC THIS EVENING SHOWS MULTIPLE
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SLOWLY FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI
THROUGH FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE TO MULTIPLE MCVS NOTED IN RADAR, DOWNSTREAM OF A MORE
PROMINENT SHORTWAVE DIGGING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE
FEATURES ARE DRIVING LOCALLY ENHANCED ASCENT, WITH ADDITIONAL LIFT
OCCURRING ALONG OUTFLOWS AND REMNANT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARIES. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE AREA IS
CHARACTERIZED BY PWS AROUND 2 INCHES AND COLLOCATED MUCAPE OF
1000-2000 J/KG, TO SUPPORT HOURLY RAINFALL WHICH HAS BEEN MEASURED
VIA MRMS TO BE AS HIGH AS 1.5 - 2.0 INCHES IN THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THE HIGH-RES CAMS DIFFER IN THE EVOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO COVERAGE
AND POSITION OF CONVECTION, BUT NEARLY ALL SOLUTIONS SHOW AT LEAST
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN RATES CONTINUING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THE FOCUS WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE CURRENT
MCVS AS THEY LOCALLY ENHANCED ASCENT, WHILE MODEST 25KT BULK SHEAR
HELPS ORGANIZE NEW DEVELOPMENT INTO ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS. THE HREF
AND REFS BOTH INDICATE A 30-50% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 1"/HR RAIN
RATES FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS, SUPPORTED BY MODEST 850MB INFLOW
RESUPPLYING THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
0-6KM MEAN WINDS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN LIGHT AT JUST AROUND 5 KTS,
AND AS THE INFLOW VEERS OVERNIGHT, CORFIDI VECTORS MAY COLLAPSE TO
SUPPORT WEAK AND CHAOTIC STORM MOTIONS, AIDED BY BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS AND STORM MERGERS. THIS WILL CREATE 2-3" OF RAIN WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE 4" POSSIBLE
ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS OF AR AND MO HAVE EXPERIENCED
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL THE PAST 7-DAYS, MUCH OF THIS
REGION HAS BEEN DRY, LEADING TO ELEVATED 3-HR FFG THAT IS
GENERALLY 3-4 INCHES. THESE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
LIMIT THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED
RISK WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS, ESPECIALLY WHERE THESE
INTENSE RAIN RATES MOVE MOST SLOWLY OR ACROSS ANY OF THE LOCALLY
MORE VULNERABLE SOILS.
WEISS
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FWD...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...SHV...TSA...
ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 37729186 37529059 37079033 35919064 34199151
33729200 33339280 32809326 32619405 32899455
33219498 33789532 34769539 36229460 36929408
37449326
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