608
AWUS01 KWNH 081557
FFGMPD
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-081855-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0974
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1156 AM EDT SAT AUG 08 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...ARKLATEX AND VICINITY
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 081555Z - 081855Z
SUMMARY...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING RISK CONTINUES ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX...
DISCUSSION... A NEAR STATIONARY BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. CONVECTION IS ALSO
FORMING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WESTWARD TO THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER.
SATELLITE SHOWS CONVECTION AND LIGHTNING EXPANDING WITHIN THIS
STORM CLUSTER. RAINFALL RATES (PER MRMS) ARE AS HIGH AS 2-3" PER
HOUR ON A LOCALIZED BASIS, NEARING HOURLY FFG THRESHOLDS, WHILE
MRMS FLASH RESPONSES WERE LOW TO MODERATE, SUGGESTIVE OF LOCAL
RUNOFF POTENTIAL BENEATH ONGOING CELLS.
THE STORMS ARE EMBEDDED IN 1000 J/KG MLCAPE (PER RAP/SPC
MESOANALYSES) AND 2 INCH PW VALUES, SUPPORTING HEAVY RAINFALL AND
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES. THIS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY COMBO
ALONG WITH SUBTLE CONFLUENCE ROOTED IN THE 850-700MB LAYER SHOULD
SUSTAIN STORMS FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS. WEAK STEERING
FLOW ALOFT WILL ENABLE SLOW/NEGLIGIBLE STORM MOTIONS, AND SPOTS OF
2-3 INCH/HR RAIN RATES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WHILE STORMS PERSIST.
MODELS/CAMS SUGGEST THAT THIS THREAT MAY DIMINISH THROUGH 18-19Z
OR SO AS WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FURTHER WEAKENS.THESE
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THE STORMS MAY PERSIST BEYOND THIS
TIME PERIOD.
COOK/WILDER
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 34819317 34679216 33979209 33259368 32989584
33009634 33859639 34319522
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