503
AWUS01 KWNH 081844
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-090030-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0977
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
243 PM EDT SAT AUG 08 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...ARKLATEX
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 081843Z - 090030Z
SUMMARY...SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX REGION. ADDITIONAL AREAS
OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA SUGGESTS
EVIDENCE OF A SLOW-MOVING VORT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION WHICH
CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR
REDEVELOPING AREAS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MLCAPE
VALUES ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST TX THROUGH NORTHERN LA AND FAR
SOUTHERN AR ARE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG, WITH PWS OF
GENERALLY 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES BASED ON THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS.
THIS STRONGLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH
SMALL-SCALE VORT DYNAMICS AND SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACTIVITY
SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN A CONVECTIVE THREAT ACROSS THE BROADER
ARKLATEX REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
RAINFALL RATES WILL BE CAPABLE OF REACHING 2 TO 3 INCHES/HOUR WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS GIVEN THE LEVEL OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
THAT IS IN PLACE. WHILE THE SHEAR IS LIMITED, THESE STORMS SHOULD
STILL HAVE SOME LOCALIZED ORGANIZATION ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS. THIS COUPLED WITH SLOW CELL-MOTIONS OVERALL MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFAL TOTALS OF 3 TO 4+ INCHES TO OCCUR.
FFG VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH OVER THE REGION, AND THEREFORE THESE
ADDITIONAL RAINS SHOULD GENERALLY FAVOR AN ISOLATED AND MAINLY
URBAN FLASH FLOOD THREAT GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
ORRISON
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FWD...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 34119395 34039310 33889255 33589196 33249171
32689171 32249187 31969249 31929371 32129481
32539569 32939591 33479583 33859548 34029488
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