427
AWUS01 KWNH 110946
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-111300-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1006
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
545 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 110944Z - 111300Z
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH RAIN RATES OF 1-2"/HR. THROUGH TRAINING,
THIS COULD PRODUCE 2-3" OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AND
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION...THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS
NEW THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY BLOSSOMING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN OHIO
AND INTO WEST VIRGINIA. THIS AREA WAS RECENTLY WORKED OVER BY AN
MCS, BUT PERSISTENT THERMODYNAMIC ADVECTION ON W/SW 925-850MB
WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR MUCAPE RECOVERY SUFFICIENT FOR THIS RENEWED
CONVECTIVE GROWTH. A SHORTWAVE EXITING FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA IS
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL ASCENT WHILE LOCALLY BACKING THE LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW AS WELL, LEADING TO SLOW MOVING LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT
HAVE HOURLY RAINFALL ESTIMATED FROM KILN OF NEARLY 2 INCHES.
THE CAMS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THIS NEW CONVECTIVE GROWTH THIS
MORNING, SO CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
IS MODEST. HOWEVER, UPSTREAM PWS MEASURED VIA GPS ARE AROUND
1.7-1.8 INCHES, OR ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE, AND
THIS IS COLLOCATED WITH A RIBBON OF MUCAPE ABOVE 3000 J/KG WHICH
HAS POOLED SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT. THE ADVECTION OF THIS
ENVIRONMENT HAS ALLOWED FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED ENVIRONMENTAL
RECOVERY, INTO WHICH THE SHORTWAVE AND THE CONVERGENCE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE DRIVING THE THUNDERSTORMS. MEAN 0-6KM WINDS
ARE ALIGNED TO THE CORFIDI VECTORS AND THIS CONVERGENCE AXIS,
SUGGESTING THE IMPRESSIVE TRAINING ALREADY ONGOING WILL CONTINUE
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, CORFIDI VECTORS COLLAPSING TO
JUST AROUND 5 KTS INDICATE BACKBUILDING POTENTIAL, AND WITH RAIN
RATES OF 1-2"/HR, THIS COULD PRODUCE CORRIDORS OF RAIN WHICH
EXCEED 3" (20-30% CHANCE FROM THE REFS, WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION).
SOME OF THIS AREA RECEIVED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALREADY OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OHIO INTO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. THIS HAS
LOWERED THE 3-HR FFG TO LESS THAN 0.5" LOCALLY, BUT MORE BROADLY
IT IS 1-1.5". WHILE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL THIS MORNING SHOULD
HOPEFULLY STAY JUST WEST OF THE HARD-HIT AREAS OVERNIGHT, ANY
TRAINING OF THIS RAIN WILL CREATE NEW, OR EXACERBATE ONGOING,
FLASH FLOODING.
WEISS
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...JKL...LMK...PBZ...RLX...RNK...
ATTN...RFC...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...
LAT...LON 40488374 40388280 39378130 38738042 38358009
37838007 37348061 37178182 37658321 38458419
39088456 40018438
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