420
AWUS01 KWNH 111825
FFGMPD
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-120000-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1009
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
223 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN CA...SOUTHERN NV...WESTERN AZ
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 111822Z - 120000Z
SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN AN ANOMALOUSLY
MOIST AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH THE HEAVIEST AND SLOWER MOVING STORMS
POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS ALREADY STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH PLENTY OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PWS ARE ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA FROM THE LASTEST SPC MESOANALYSIS, COUPLED
WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY GIVEN 500-1500 J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE.
ADDITIONALLY, EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ARIZONA HAS LEFT BEHIND A COUPLE OF WEAK MCVS NOTED IN RECENT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
ONCE THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING'S STORMS
BREAK UP FURTHER, ADDITIONAL SOLAR INSOLATION AND ANY EXISTING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ADDITIONAL STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS PRESENT. THE CURRENT CAM GUIDANCE SUITE HAS
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE PENINSULAR RANGE AND
ALSO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. SOME INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS BRUN SCARS OR OTHER VULNERABLE
TERRAIN AREAS THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SLOWER
CELLS THAT DEVELOP.
HAMRICK
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...SGX...TWC...VEF...
ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...
LAT...LON 36891405 36891304 36881183 36771077 36101020
35291011 34231077 34341209 34201277 34021300
33781317 33351325 32781307 32431316 32241359
32451489 32531588 32561646 33401684 34361701
34861677 35251649 35761619 36201579 36711494
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