173
AWUS01 KWNH 112232
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-120400-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1013
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
631 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 112230Z - 120400Z
SUMMARY...SLOW MOVING CELLS EMANATING FROM LARGER COMPLEX OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO, LIKELY TO INCREASE MOISTURE FLUX AND RAINFALL
PRODUCTION THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOURLY RATES OF
1-1.5"/HR AND SIMILAR 1-2" LOCALIZED MAY RESULT IN INCIDENTS OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV SUITE SHOWS CENTER OF DEEP LAYER RIDGE
CENTERED ALONG THE NM/CO LINE; WHILE A STRONGER CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER/COMPLEX AND RESULTANT MCV THAT DEVELOPED IN NW
CHIHUAHUA/NE SONORA IN MEXICO IS BEING DRAWN NORTHWESTWARD INTO
THE US DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS IS ALSO HELPING TO DIRECT DEEPER
LAYER MOISTURE NORTHWARD MOVING THE MID-LEVEL DRY AXIS SEEN IN
EAST-CENTRAL AZ/WEST-CENTRAL NM OUT OF THE AREA OF CONCERN AND
INCREASING OVERALL MOISTURE VALUES FROM LESS THAN 1" TOWARD 1.25
AND MAYBE LOCALLY 1.5" FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS FURTHER WEST IN S AZ.
IN THE LOWER LEVELS STRONGER MOISTURE CONFLUENCE DUE TO THE
ADVANCING MCV IS FILTERING MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
THROUGH SONORA IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY 850-700MB WINDS,
WHILE SURFACE TO 850MB WEST TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW IS SEEN IN
VWP ACROSS AZ EMANATING FROM THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTHERN
MARICOPA AND W PIMA COUNTY AS WELL. OVERALL, THIS IS INCREASING
INSTABILITY NOSING UP FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ALONG THE SE
AZ/MEXICO BORDER.
THE CONVERGENCE AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE/UNSTABLE AIR HAS RESULTED
IN SOME MOUNTAIN CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SANTA CRUZ AND
COCHISE COUNTY WITH SOME HINTS STARTING ACROSS THE BOOTHEEL OF NM
AS WELL. AS THE MCV LIFTS NORTH, CONVECTIVE EXPANSION IS EXPECTED
WITH RAIN RATES INCREASING FROM .75"/HR TOWARD 1-1.5"/HR. CELL
MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW, BUT FORWARD PROPAGATION INTO THE WEAK INFLOW
MAY REDUCE RESIDENCY TIME TO LESS THAN 1-1.5 HOURS, SO SPOTTY 1-2"
TOTALS ARE PROBABLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE AZ AND SW NM. HARD
GROUND CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SEE LOCALIZED HIGH-RUN OFF WITH
SCATTERED INCIDENTS OF FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
GALLINA
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...
LAT...LON 32771017 32740871 32260694 31700661 31280807
31190861 31211002 31241103 31521164 32041173
32561132
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page