575
AWUS01 KWNH 112352
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-120500-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1015
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
751 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN ARIZONA...CENTRAL WESTERN NEW MEXICO...
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 112350Z - 120500Z
SUMMARY...SCATTERED INCIDENTS OF FLASH FLOODING REMAIN POSSIBLE
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG WESTERN CONFLUENT EDGE OF
DEEP LAYER RIDGE WITH SPOTS OF 1-1.5".
DISCUSSION...GOES-E VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD AREA OF GLACIATED
CIRRUS WITHIN THE CONFLUENT ZONE OF 500MB FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST
EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE GENERALLY COINCIDENT WITH THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM IN AZ INTO THE MOGOLLON
MOUNTAINS OF W NM. HOWEVER, THESE OLDER GLACIATED WEAKENING OR
DEAD CELLS PRODUCED OUTFLOWS OUTWARD FROM THE RIM BOTH DOWNSLOPE W
AND SW AS WELL AS FURTHER UP INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO PLATEAU
PROVIDING SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ON THE REMAINING UNSTABLE AIR
WHERE 1000-1500 J/KG ARE BEING UTILIZED WITH THESE NEW DEVELOPING
CORES. GIVEN UPSTREAM STRONGER FLOW AT 700MB, THIS IS ALSO
BUILDING EASTWARD THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL NM ALLOWING FOR SOME
DOWNSTREAM REPEATING INTO E AZ AS WELL. STILL, PERSISTENT UPSLOPE
FLOW OF 5-10KTS WILL PROVIDE THE BEST MOISTURE FLUX AND
CONVERGENCE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, PERHAPS RESULTING IN
SHORT-TERM EFFECTIVE STATIONARY MOTIONS GIVEN INFLOW COUNTERS THE
DEEP LAYER FLOW WANTING CELLS TO MOVE NNW. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
REMAINS SOLID FOR MONSOON AT AROUND 1 TO 1.25" SUGGESTING HOURLY
RATES UP TO 1" AND SPOTS OF 1-1.5" REMAIN POSSIBLE RESULTING IN
SCATTERED POSSIBLE INCIDENTS OF FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
GALLINA
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...
LAT...LON 36831205 36201139 35411021 35150945 34910836
34470795 33930824 33540863 33130935 33101018
33641136 34631262 35811300 36741282
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