681
AWUS01 KWNH 120452
FFGMPD
AZZ000-121048-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1019
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1251 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF AZ
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 120448Z - 121048Z
SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND
SOUTHERN AZ. HOURLY RAIN AMOUNTS TO 2" ARE POSSIBLE WHEREVER
CELLS CAN CLUSTER/STALL/MERGE.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AZ IN THE VICINITY OF AN EASTERLY WAVE AND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF ~0.8" LIE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM, WITH VALUES OF
2" ACROSS SOUTHWEST AZ. THE INSTABILITY PATTERN APPEARS TIED TO
THE TERRAIN AND SOME OF THE DESERTS PRESENTLY, WITH MU CAPE UP TO
3000 J/KG AVAILABLE A BIT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CLUSTER.
WHILE SHORT TERM TRENDS IN THE CONVECTION COULD BE DOWNWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN AZ AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH A LESS UNSTABLE
AREA, THERE IS CONCERN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT CONVECTION
COULD PICK BACK UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR OF
SOUTHWEST AZ. ALSO, THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF SAFFORD COULD SHOW
A TENDENCY TO REDEVELOP TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITHIN THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY IN AND NEAR THE MOGOLLON RIM. HOURLY RAIN AMOUNTS TO
2" ARE POSSIBLE WHEREVER THUNDERSTORMS CAN STALL, GROW IN
COVERAGE, BACKBUILDING, OR MERGE. THIS WOULD BE A PROBLEM IN
URBAN AREAS, BURN SCARS, ARROYOS/DRY WASHES, AND BOX/SLOT CANYONS.
ROTH
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...
ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...
LAT...LON 35721323 35541143 34460981 33310930 31340999
31221144 31721284 32311413 33341322 33031123
33071111 33121075 33691107 34511340
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