116
AWUS01 KWNH 122031
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-130200-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1026
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
430 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN ARIZONA...WESTERN NEW MEXICO...
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 122030Z - 130200Z
SUMMARY...SLOW MOVING MONSOON CONVECTION CAPABLE OF 1-1.25"/HR AND
WIDELY SCATTERED FOCUSED TOTALS OF 1-2" MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...
DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV SUITE DENOTES A SLIGHT PATTERN CHANGE OVER
THE LAST DAY AS LARGER SCALE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW APPROACHES THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, AS THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE HAS BROKEN DOWN OVER
CO/NM AND SHIFTED EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS SUCH,
DEEP LAYER FLOW IS STARTING TO LIKEWISE TRANSITION TO A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS IS DRAWING MORE SUB-TROPICAL EASTERN
PACIFIC NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SEA OF CORTEZ, SONORA INTO THE AREA
OF CONCERN. SLOW FILTERING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ASCENDED IN
ELEVATION AND IS STARTING TO REACH WEST-CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST NM
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH TOTAL PWAT RISING FROM .75" RANGE
TOWARD 1-1.25 BY 00Z ON GENERALLY WESTERLY TO SOUTHWEST 850-700MB
10-15KT FLOW; WHILE SE AZ WILL INCREASE TOWARD 1.5". THIS TREND
IS NOTED IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALREADY WITH LOW 50S AS FAR
NORTHEAST AS GUP/GNT AND LOW 60S IN SE AZ.
AN EMBEDDED MCV FROM LAST EVENING'S COMPLEX IN NE SONORA HAS
LIFTED TOWARD W GRAHAM COUNTY AND THIS WAS THE ONLY AREA GENERALLY
WITH REDUCED INSOLATION AS HIGHER CIRRUS ERODED SLOWER THIS
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. STILL, BROADENING SBCAPES FROM 1000 TO
1500 J/KG ARE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST AND MOUNTAIN
CIRCULATION HAVE ALREADY RESULTED IN SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE WEAK DPVA FROM THE MCV MAY INCREASE OVERALL COVERAGE THROUGH
THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM INTO THE MOGOLLON AND BLACK RANGES IN NM,
EVENTUALLY EXPANDING FURTHER DOWNSTREAM AS WELL. GIVEN THE
INCREASED OVERALL MOISTURE, RATES OF 0.5-0.75"/HR WILL INCREASED
TO INCREASED TO 1-1.25". GIVEN THE TRANSITION TOWARD THE
APPROACHING TROUGH, THE WINDS ARE STILL LIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH'S INFLUENCE, SO CELL MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW
AT 5-10 KTS. ADDITIONALLY, LOCALIZED MERGERS OR REDEVELOPMENT
ALONG COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL HAVE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR HIGHEST RATES AND EVENTUALLY LOCALIZED SPOTTY TOTALS TO 2".
AS TYPICAL WITH MONSOON CONVECTION, THE SUB-HOURLY RATE/TOTALS
OVER ROCKY, STEEP GROUND CONDITIONS WILL HAVE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. THESE INCIDENTS SHOULD BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
HOURS ACROSS E ARIZONA AND W NEW MEXICO.
GALLINA
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...
LAT...LON 36870870 36830719 36540633 36050588 35780581
35090603 33730710 32420767 31840774 31270804
31210850 31200945 31231081 31641178 32311097
33441068 34371064 35061039 35680988 36360948
36620931
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