662
FXHW01 KWNH 220910
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
510 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
VALID 00Z SUN 23 AUG 2026 - 00Z SUN 30 AUG 2026
OVERALL, NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS TROPICAL
STORM MOKE WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC BEFORE PASSING SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME LATITUDINAL SPREAD, MODELS HAVE
REMAINED CONSISTENT -- MAINTAINING A TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS. HOWEVER, DESPITE THE STORM'S POSITION WELL TO THE SOUTH,
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN MOKE AND HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED TO THE NORTH WILL SUPPORT STRONG EASTERLY WINDS SPREADING
WEST ACROSS THE ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS, A
DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE POSITIONED NORTH OF MOKE WILL FUEL HEAVY
RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN ISLANDS, WITH SEVERAL INCHES
LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND. WITH THESE RAINS COMING
QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF LALA, LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES ARE A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN. EVEN AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
WEST AND WEAKENS, GUIDANCE SHOWS AN ELONGATED STRETCH OF DEEPER
MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE ISLANDS, POTENTIALLY CARRYING THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WELL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEN A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL EASTERLY TRADES IS EXPECTED, WITH
NOTABLY DRIER AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE ISLANDS BY MIDWEEK.
PEREIRA
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