637
FXHW01 KWNH 030737
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
337 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2026
VALID 00Z FRI 04 SEP 2026 - 00Z FRI 11 SEP 2026
GUSTY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO THANKS TO A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND
MAJOR HURRICANE LOWELL PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH. DAILY SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN BUT THESE WILL MOSTLY BE
CONFINED TO THE TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS, ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. THE STRONG AND GUSTY TRADE WIND PATTERN EVENTUALLY WILL
BECOME DISRUPTED LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HURRICANE KARINA
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND. LIGHTER WINDS
WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN NEXT WEEK AS BOTH LOWELL
AND KARINA WILL BOTH BE LINGERING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
WHILE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM EITHER STORM ARE STILL LOW, MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LOW POTENTIALLY INTERACTING
WITH BOTH STORMS. DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER LOW,
AND HOW MUCH INTERACTION OCCURS, EITHER STORM COULD THREATEN TO
MOVE CLOSER TO THE ISLAND CHAIN. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE FOR
LOWELL, WHICH IS FORECAST TO MAKE A SHARP TURN TO THE NORTH AFTER
MOVING WESTWARD SOUTH OF THE STATE. WHEN AND WHERE THAT NORTHWARD
TURN TAKES PLACE WILL LIKELY DETERMINE THE DEGREE OF POTENTIAL
IMPACTS TO HAWAII FROM THE STORM. DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR
IN THE COMING DAYS, SO STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST AND PLEASE REFER
TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING
THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY OF LOWELL AND KARINA.
MILLER
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