785
AWUS01 KWNH 031150
FFGMPD
TXZ000-031745-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1181
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
749 AM EDT THU SEP 03 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN TX
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 031149Z - 031745Z
SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF EDOUARD WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS OF EASTERN TX THROUGH
MIDDAY. AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.
DISCUSSION...THE EARLY MORNING GOES-E PROXY VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL VORT CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH EDOUARD'S
REMNANTS GRADUALLY DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN TX
AND TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE SOUTH. RELATIVELY
SHALLOW/WARM-TOPPED CONVECTION IS NOTED AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN FLANKS OF THE VORT CENTER, AND THIS IS BEING AIDED BY THE
CONVERGENT NOSE OF A VERY MOIST AND RATHER UNSTABLE 30 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET.
MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ARE NOTED AROUND THE SOUTHERN
FLANK OF THE VORT CENTER, AND THE PWS REMAIN QUITE HIGH WITH
VALUES NEAR 2.25 INCHES. THIS COUPLED WITH THE RATHER SHALLOW
WARM-TOPPED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD FAVOR EXTREMELY
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES FOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES CAPABLE OF
REACHING 2.5 INCHES/HOUR.
THE LATEST HIRES CAMS SUPPORT SOME ADDITIONAL CELL-TRAINING
CONCERNS AND SLOW CELL-MOTIONS THAT WILL FOSTER SOME ADDITIONAL
LOCALIZED 3 TO 5+ INCH RAINFALL TOTALS GOING THROUGH MIDDAY. FFG
VALUES ARE HIGHER FARTHER NORTH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE VORT
CENTER, BUT WITH SUCH HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
CELL-TRAINING CONCERNS, THERE WILL BE A GENERAL LIKELIHOOD FOR
MORE AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
ORRISON
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...
LAT...LON 33339592 32869491 32029444 30889430 30069464
29759555 29989618 30559666 31029694 31589720
32249732 33059694
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