444
AWUS01 KWNH 031233
FFGMPD
NDZ000-031800-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1182
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
832 AM EDT THU SEP 03 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN ND
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 031232Z - 031800Z
SUMMARY...A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF VERY HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME LOCALIZED CELL-TRAINING CONCERNS MAY
MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS AREAS OF
NORTHERN ND.
DISCUSSION...AN EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
PLAINS COUPLED WITH DEEPER LAYER WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE NOSE
OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WELL AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO FOSTERS AT LEAST A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY AREAS OF NORTHERN ND GOING THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
MUCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2000+ J/KG ALONG WITH PWS OF 1.3 TO 1.4
INCHES WILL HELP FACILITATE RAINFALL RATES AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2
INCHES/HOUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THERE IS A BELT OF FAIRLY
STRONG SHEAR DROPPING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ND WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KTS. THIS COUPLED
WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
HELP MAINTAIN THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE FOOTPRINT/ORGANIZATION GOING
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY, WITH A DOWNSTREAM ADVANCE OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ND.
SOME LOCALIZED CELL-TRAINING WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE, AND
THIS MAY FOSTER SOME LOCALIZED 2 TO 4 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS. THIS
MAY FOSTER SOME FFG EXCEEDANCE AND CONCERNS FOR ISOLATED AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING.
ORRISON
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF...
ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...
LAT...LON 48979801 48539766 48099889 47730087 47840176
48280196 48630140 48959999
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