554
AWUS01 KWNH 031707
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-032305-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1184
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
105 PM EDT THU SEP 03 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN TX...SOUTHWEST LA
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 031705Z - 032305Z
SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL REMNANTS OF EDOUARD
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS OF EASTERN TX AND ALSO SOME PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST LA THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED ADDITIONAL
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...THE MIDDAY GOES-E GEOCOLOR SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG
WITH RADAR SHOWS GENERALLY BROKEN AND DISORGANIZED AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF EASTERN
TX, WITH SOME RECENT CONVECTION SEEN DEVELOPING IN A WEAKLY BANDED
FASHION NEAR THE TX/LA BORDER AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHWEST LA.
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY WARMING NEAR THE CORE OF WHAT
IS LEFT OF ANY CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH EDOUARD'S
MID-LEVEL VORT ENERGY WHICH IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY STRETCHED
FROM NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE SOUTH DOWN ACROSS EASTERN
TX. INSTABILITY ACROSS AREAS OF EASTERN TX ARE ALSO RATHER MODEST
DUE TO CLOUD COVER, A GENERAL WEAKENING OF THE EARLIER LOW-LEVEL
JET ENERGY, AND THE OVERALL PROCESS OF CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING.
HOWEVER, AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE CLOUD COVER AND REMAINING
ACTIVE CONVECTION, SOME STRONGER INSTABILITY GRADIENTS ARE SETTING
UP DUE TO THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING GRADIENTS. THESE GRADIENTS ARE
LIKELY TO FACILITATE NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL INCLUDE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHWEST LA, AND
ALSO AREAS FARTHER WEST BACK INTO THE TX TRIANGLE REGION.
MUCAPE VALUES ALONG SOME OF THESE GRADIENTS ARE ON THE ORDER OF
1500 TO 2500 J/KG. THIS COUPLED WITH THE HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT
(VALUES LOCALLY AROUND 2.25 INCHES) WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL RATES TO REACH AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 2.5
INCHES/HOUR.
THE LATEST 12Z HREF/REFS CONSENSUS, HRRR GUIDANCE, AND THE
EXPERIMENTAL WOFS SUGGEST MUCH LESS CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO THE
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT GOING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON HOURS AS
EDOUARD'S ENERGY CONTINUES TO LOSE ITS IDENTITY. HOWEVER,
SUFFICIENT REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
SUCH THAT SOME ADDITIONAL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4+ INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL PROMOTE A THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, AND ESPECIALLY IF ANY OF THESE RAINS CAN
OVERLAP WITH AREAS THAT SAW EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE LAST 48
HOURS IN SOUTHEAST TX.
ORRISON
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...
LAT...LON 32539604 31899539 31649486 31519423 31259329
30729257 30159220 29509222 29499309 29389424
28829513 28489570 28699656 29789706 30239783
30849837 31899805 32519711
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