040
AWUS01 KWNH 031807
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-040005-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1185
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
206 PM EDT THU SEP 03 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST AZ & WESTERN NM
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 031805Z - 040005Z
SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOURLY RAIN
AMOUNTS TO 2" COULD LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION,
WHICH SOME CUMULI DEVELOPING WITHIN A MOIST AIRMASS. MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ HAS BEEN HELPED BY HURRICANE MARIE TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ML CAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG EXISTS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF AZ, WHILE A BROADER AREA OF MU CAPE IN SPOTS
BEYOND 2000 J/KG EXISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF AZ AND
SOUTHWEST NM. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS APPROACHING 25 KTS.
DIFLUENCE ALOFT IS SPONSORED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO SOUTHERN NV. THE MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION IS WEAK AT 700
HPA TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY 12C OR COOLER.
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF AZ AND WESTERN NM. WITH THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE ENTERING NV, EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR COULD ALSO
INCREASE SOMEWHAT. GIVEN THE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE, HOURLY AMOUNTS
TO 2" ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS STALL/BACKBUILD, HAVE SHORT PERIODS
OF TRAINING, OR MERGE. THIS WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC IN URBAN AREAS,
BURN SCARS, SLOT/BOX CANYONS, DRY WASHES/ARROYOS. OCCURRENCES OF
FLASH FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED.
ROTH
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...
LAT...LON 36850750 34550664 31310740 31160930 31621251
33151140 34821118
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