803
AWUS01 KWNH 031817
FFGMPD
MNZ000-NDZ000-040015-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1186
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
216 PM EDT THU SEP 03 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST ND...NORTHERN MN
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 031816Z - 040015Z
SUMMARY...HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ADVANCING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ND AND NORTHERN MN GOING THROUGH THE
MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND SOME
OCCASIONAL CELL-TRAINING CONCERNS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION...AN EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A
LONG-LIVED MCS THAT IS MOVING INTO NORTHEAST ND. GOES-E IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A SUSTAINABLE CORRIDOR OF COLD
CONVECTIVE TOPS ADVANCING DOWNSTREAM, AND THE COMBINATION OF
SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS ALONG WITH PROXIMITY OF A STRONG ELEVATED
INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND BROADER WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD TEND TO
SUSTAIN THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE MASS GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
MUCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2000+ J/KG ALONG WITH PWS OF 1.5 TO 1.7
INCHES WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH RATHER STRONG KINEMATICS (40 TO
50+ KTS) TO FAVOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND SOME RAINFALL RATES
CAPABLE OF REACHING 1 TO 2 INCHES/HOUR WITH THE STRONGER
CONVECTIVE CORES.
SOME LOCALIZED CELL-TRAINING WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
ALIGNMENT OF THE ACTIVITY WITH THE DEEPER LAYER STEERING FLOW, AND
THIS MAY FOSTER SOME ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED 2 TO 4 INCH RAINFALL
TOTALS AS THE CONVECTION IMPACTS NORTHEAST ND AND ADJACENT
DOWNSTREAM AREAS OF NORTHERN MN. A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z HREF/REFS
GUIDANCE DOES GENERALLY SUPPORT THIS. SOME ISOLATED AND MAINLY
URBAN FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ORRISON
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...
ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...
LAT...LON 48989677 48889545 48569415 47949287 47299253
46689287 46449415 46669587 47109739 47749857
48279905 48679886 48939802
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