397
AWUS01 KWNH 031856
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-040053-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1187
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
255 PM EDT THU SEP 03 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...IN AND NEAR EASTERN OH, WESTERN PA, & NORTHERN WV
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 031853Z - 040053Z
SUMMARY...LOCAL CONVECTIVE GROWTH ALONG WITH INCOMING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ARRIVING FROM SOUTHERN MI/LAKE ERIE COULD LEAD TO HOURLY
RAIN AMOUNTS TO 2.5" WITH LOCAL TOTALS TO 4". OCCURRENCES OF
FLASH FLOODING COULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED THROUGH 01Z.
DISCUSSION...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION IS
HELPING TO ERODE CIN ACROSS NORTHERN WV, CENTRAL OH, AND NORTHWEST
VA SPARKING SOME NEW CONVECTIVE GROWTH. THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF MI'S MITT AND LAKE ERIE ARE MOVING
TOWARDS NORTHEAST OH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE 1.5-2". ML
CAPE IS 2000-3000 J/KG. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS 35-45 KTS, WHICH
SHOULD ORGANIZE CONVECTION.
THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOCALLY GROWN CONVECTION
ALONG WITH UPSTREAM CONVECTION COULD MERGE INTO A COMPLEX THAT
GROWS UPSCALE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOURLY RAIN AMOUNTS TO 2.5"
WITH LOCAL TOTALS TO 4" ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TRACKS. THESE AMOUNTS WOULD EXCEED THE THREE
HOURLY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE, WHICH ARE MODEST, ROUGHLY IN THE 2"/3
HOUR RANGE. OCCURRENCES OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO MESOCYCLONE
FORMATION, CELL TRAINING, AND CELL MERGERS SHOULD BE WIDELY
SCATTERED THROUGH 01Z.
ROTH
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...ILN...LWX...PBZ...RLX...
ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...
LAT...LON 42398167 41107915 39947834 38067863 39048139
40088266 41578348 42308280
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