200
AWUS01 KWNH 032306
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-040504-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1188
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
705 PM EDT THU SEP 03 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST AZ & WESTERN NM
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 032304Z - 040504Z
SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF FLASH FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 05Z, PARTICULARLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN AZ/NM BORDER.
HOURLY RAIN AMOUNTS TO 2" COULD LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED
OCCURRENCES OF FLASH FLOODING INTO TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GROWN IN COVERAGE
ACROSS WESTERN NM AND SOUTHEAST AZ THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A REGION
OF 700 HPA CONFLUENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE 1.75-2" IN
THE LOWER DESERTS AND CLOSER TO AN INCH AT ELEVATION. ML CAPE IS
BROADLY 500-1500 J/KG. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25 KTS LIES NEAR
THE NM/AZ BORDER WHICH HAS LED TO SOME LEVEL OF ORGANIZATION.
THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CELL COVERAGE IS ABOUT TO PEAK FOR THE
DAY, WITH ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ MOST LIKELY TO HANG ON
TOWARDS 05Z WITH THUNDERSTORMS SHOWING SOME EASTWARD DRIFT INTO
SOUTHWEST NM WITH TIME. GIVEN THE INGREDIENTS IN PLACE AND FOR AS
LONG AS CELL COVERAGE IS SUFFICIENT, HOURLY AMOUNTS TO 2" ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS STALL/BACKBUILD, HAVE SHORT PERIODS OF
TRAINING, OR MERGE. THIS WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC IN URBAN AREAS,
BURN SCARS, SLOT/BOX CANYONS, DRY WASHES/ARROYOS. OCCURRENCES OF
FLASH FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED IN GENERAL, BUT
SLOWLY DROP OFF WITH TIME INTO TONIGHT/TOWARDS 05Z.
ROTH
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...PUB...TWC...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...
LAT...LON 37160731 37130616 35630597 33390625 31180763
30961145 31821287 34251130 36040935
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