725
AWUS01 KWNH 032323
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-040322-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1189
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
723 PM EDT THU SEP 03 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN NY
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 032322Z - 040322Z
SUMMARY...A TRAINING BAND IS ATTEMPTING TO SET UP NEAR BUFFALO.
HOURLY RAIN AMOUNTS TO 2" AND LOCAL TOTALS TO 4" ARE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRYING TO CONNECT/TRAIN
IN A LINEAR ORIENTATION VERY NEAR BUFFALO NY NOT FAR FROM A
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
~1.75" LIE HERE. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS ~40 KTS. ML CAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG EXISTS IN THE AREA.
THERE IS A SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE FOR A 3-4 HOUR HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBILITY IN THIS REGION, WHICH APPEARS TO BE BEGINNING. HOURLY
RAIN AMOUNTS TO 2" WITH LOCAL TOTALS TO 4" ARE POSSIBLE IN PLACES
THAT MANAGE TO GET A COUPLE HOURS OF TRAINING OR WHERE
MESOCYCLONES MANAGE TO FORM. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE ON
THE LOW END DUE TO RECENT RAINS, SO FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED
POSSIBLE.
ROTH
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...
ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...
LAT...LON 43297871 43047683 42627549 41917505 41857641
43107976
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