525
AWUS01 KWNH 041806
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-050004-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1198
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
205 PM EDT FRI SEP 04 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KY EAST & SOUTHEAST INTO VA/NC
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 041804Z - 050004Z
SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN
SOUTHWEST WV AND EASTERN KY. HOURLY RAIN AMOUNTS TO 2.5" WITH
LOCAL TOTALS TO 4" ARE POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING.
DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BUILDING UP ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WV & EASTERN KY DOWNSTREAM OF AN INSTABILITY POOL ACROSS
OH, AHEAD OF A FRONT AT 850 HPA AND A SURFACE THERMAL GRADIENT,
AND NEAR THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF A WARM CORE HIGH/RIDGE. CIN
IS STILL TRYING TO ERODE OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
AND EASTERN NC. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS ~25 KTS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.5-2" EXIST IN THE REGION. ML CAPE IS BROADLY
1500-3000 J/KG.
THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SIGNAL HERE APPEARS DELAYED COMPARED TO
WHAT'S ONGOING. THE MEAN 850-400 HPA WIND, 1000-500 HPA THICKNESS
PATTERN, AND FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS STRONGLY SUGGEST
SOUTHEAST MOTION TO CONVECTION TODAY. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD
EVENTUALLY BECOME MOST DENSE ACROSS SOUTHEAST VA AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC WHERE THE 850 HPA CONFLUENCE IS STRONGEST.
GIVEN THE INGREDIENTS AVAILABLE, HOURLY RAIN AMOUNTS TO 2.5" WITH
LOCAL TOTALS TO 4" ARE POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING PARTICULARLY IN/NEAR SHARP TOPOGRAPHY AND IN URBAN AREAS.
ROTH
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...GSP...ILM...ILN...JKL...LMK...LWX...MHX...
MRX...RAH...RLX...RNK...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...
LAT...LON 38708313 38528180 38027779 37687543 36107548
35027729 34817937 35768142 38498407
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